SOCIETY
Even Amid Hopes for End of War, Most Russian Emigrants Say They Will Stay Abroad
February 27, 2025
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Tatiana Rybakova
Journalist and writer
Journalist Tatiana Rybakova dissects a recent survey of Russian emigrants in Serbia, conducted amid widespread expectations that the Russia-Ukraine war is coming to an end. She also discusses Serbia’s advantages as a hub for the latest wave of Russian emigration.
After the first hints of a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine war – amid statements by President Trump and Russia-US talks in Riyadh – the Russian stock market skyrocketed. Grumbling about “betrayal” in prowar circles was drowned out by rumors that familiar imported clothing brands might soon return to Russia and hopes for an imminent strengthening of the ruble. See: the majority of Russians clearly do not want war – they only tolerate it.
But what do Russians who left the country think? We are not talking about the opposition: their return is conditioned on safety from persecution at home rather than on an end to the war. We are talking about Russians who went abroad because they did not want to associate themselves with a regime that attacked a neighboring country, out of fear of mobilization or following a relocation by their employer, or all the above – will they go back to Russia? After all, most of them left in a hurry, without preparation, going where they could go.
Moreover, when they chose flight in spring-autumn 2022 – it is during this period that the largest portion of the “new wave” of Russian emigration left the country – most thought it would not be for long.
Overview of the Russian diaspora in Serbia
But what do Russians who left the country think? We are not talking about the opposition: their return is conditioned on safety from persecution at home rather than on an end to the war. We are talking about Russians who went abroad because they did not want to associate themselves with a regime that attacked a neighboring country, out of fear of mobilization or following a relocation by their employer, or all the above – will they go back to Russia? After all, most of them left in a hurry, without preparation, going where they could go.
Moreover, when they chose flight in spring-autumn 2022 – it is during this period that the largest portion of the “new wave” of Russian emigration left the country – most thought it would not be for long.
Overview of the Russian diaspora in Serbia
“One of the largest Russian diasporas of the new wave emerged in Serbia. On top of those who came to the Balkan country as their first destination, Russians who initially left Russia for other countries later moved here and continue to arrive.”
Hotel Moskva, Belgrade. Photo by Anna Zelinskaya, published with her permission.
People moved to Serbia from ex-Soviet countries (e.g., Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Georgia), Turkey (it has tapered the issuance of residence permits, including renewals of old ones; see Russia.Post about it here) and even Western countries and neighboring Montenegro (where they are now making it tougher to get residency).
In addition, Serbia was the choice for a fairly large number of Russian companies that relocated, primarily from the IT sector – starting with the giant Yandex and ending with the recently downsized but no less famous ABBYY. No wonder that Serbia’s IT services exports have soared to record highs in the last two years, even though before the war they were flaccid.
Thus, Russian emigrants in Serbia can be seen as a good indicator of what Russian emigration might do if/when the war winds down. Firstly, Russians in Serbia are in a relatively more solid position than their compatriots who ended up in, say, Georgia – in Serbia, most live without a residence permit, taking advantage of the opportunity to stay in the country without a visa for up to one year. Secondly, compared to Western countries, legalization in Serbia is rather simple, and it can be easily regained after leaving the country for a time.
Survey results of Russian emigrants in Serbia
Some assumptions about the intentions of Russians who have settled in Serbia can be made based on a recent survey on a Telegram channel popular among Russian emigrants there. On February 13, the day the Trump-Putin phone call was announced, it asked subscribers about their plans “if Ukraine and Russia conclude a peace this year/the fighting stops (etc.).”
Over the course of four days, 5,290 people took part in the survey – a significant number considering that Russian emigrants in Serbia are estimated at 150,000-300,000, including children and Russians who lived there before the war. (The exact figure is unknown, as official statistics do not include the nationality of recipients of residence permits; moreover, Russians often live legally without them by leaving the country once a month on so-called “visa runs.”) Here’s how the vote broke down:
In addition, Serbia was the choice for a fairly large number of Russian companies that relocated, primarily from the IT sector – starting with the giant Yandex and ending with the recently downsized but no less famous ABBYY. No wonder that Serbia’s IT services exports have soared to record highs in the last two years, even though before the war they were flaccid.
Thus, Russian emigrants in Serbia can be seen as a good indicator of what Russian emigration might do if/when the war winds down. Firstly, Russians in Serbia are in a relatively more solid position than their compatriots who ended up in, say, Georgia – in Serbia, most live without a residence permit, taking advantage of the opportunity to stay in the country without a visa for up to one year. Secondly, compared to Western countries, legalization in Serbia is rather simple, and it can be easily regained after leaving the country for a time.
Survey results of Russian emigrants in Serbia
Some assumptions about the intentions of Russians who have settled in Serbia can be made based on a recent survey on a Telegram channel popular among Russian emigrants there. On February 13, the day the Trump-Putin phone call was announced, it asked subscribers about their plans “if Ukraine and Russia conclude a peace this year/the fighting stops (etc.).”
Over the course of four days, 5,290 people took part in the survey – a significant number considering that Russian emigrants in Serbia are estimated at 150,000-300,000, including children and Russians who lived there before the war. (The exact figure is unknown, as official statistics do not include the nationality of recipients of residence permits; moreover, Russians often live legally without them by leaving the country once a month on so-called “visa runs.”) Here’s how the vote broke down:
It is also worth looking at comments from survey participants explaining why they chose “I will remain in emigration”:
“Peace today, no peace tomorrow. No mobilization today, mobilization tomorrow. I do not know what you should be basing your decisions on, after everything that has happened, to believe in security and normality [in Russia].”
Whoever needed to, they have already gone back; you cannot live in eternal expectation [of something]. People write that the regime has not gone anywhere, and that is the foundational thing that is worth remembering and understanding. Though, of course, the temptation to make a buck quick or easy might outweigh that.
Nah. I flew to Russia for a week. Despair, poverty, filth, devastation. It was like that before the war, and it will be like that after. Over the past few years, I have forgotten about it, and I just do not want to live in it again.
This survey shows that no matter how much they might call this wave of emigration a “wave of relocation,” it is for the most part an irreversible loss of human capital for Russia.
Nah. I flew to Russia for a week. Despair, poverty, filth, devastation. It was like that before the war, and it will be like that after. Over the past few years, I have forgotten about it, and I just do not want to live in it again.
This survey shows that no matter how much they might call this wave of emigration a “wave of relocation,” it is for the most part an irreversible loss of human capital for Russia.
The pedestrian street Knez Mihailova in Belgrade. Photo by Anna Zelinskaya, published with her permission.
Why Russians do not go back
That most emigrants will not return to Russia is also evidenced by a large study conducted by the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. According to the data, about 10% of Russians who left from 2022 have returned. The higher figures for “returnees” that had been published previously are apparently attributable to short trips where people went back to put their affairs in order: to sell property, to collect documents necessary for life abroad, renew their passport, transfer money from Russia abroad, help elderly parents remaining in Russia, etc.
Most emigrants have moved from one foreign country to another in the last two years, HSE researchers say, with Serbia emerging as a focal point.
Thus, the idea seems to be confirmed that Russians’ readiness to go back to Russia after two or three years of emigration has weakened significantly. To judge by the HSE study, it has weakened not only among emigrants who have settled down in one place but also among those who continue to move in search of somewhere better.
On top of factors always present in emigration – such as learning a language, making new friends, sending children to school, finding a job – there are motives specific to Russian emigration at play.
That most emigrants will not return to Russia is also evidenced by a large study conducted by the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. According to the data, about 10% of Russians who left from 2022 have returned. The higher figures for “returnees” that had been published previously are apparently attributable to short trips where people went back to put their affairs in order: to sell property, to collect documents necessary for life abroad, renew their passport, transfer money from Russia abroad, help elderly parents remaining in Russia, etc.
Most emigrants have moved from one foreign country to another in the last two years, HSE researchers say, with Serbia emerging as a focal point.
Thus, the idea seems to be confirmed that Russians’ readiness to go back to Russia after two or three years of emigration has weakened significantly. To judge by the HSE study, it has weakened not only among emigrants who have settled down in one place but also among those who continue to move in search of somewhere better.
On top of factors always present in emigration – such as learning a language, making new friends, sending children to school, finding a job – there are motives specific to Russian emigration at play.
“First of all, there is the conviction that after a peace is signed, the regime in Russia is unlikely to improve – in fact, most expect it to worsen.”
Belgrade (Kalemegdan) Fortress at the confluence of the Sava and Danube rivers, Belgrade. Photo by Anna Zelinskaya, published with her permission.
Another, often-overlooked factor: many Russian emigrants, especially those who went to the Balkans or other European countries, from Spain to the Czech Republic, have discovered a European type of social life that they do not want to abandon.
Emigrants often point out that Europeans are friendlier and more willing to help, while the pace of life in Europe is slower, meaning more time for people to focus on themselves. In addition, Russians appreciate the healthy relationships between people, safety and absence of crime and corruption at the everyday level. Even those who missed the glamour and dynamic cultural life of Moscow and St Petersburg in the first year after moving abroad, now acknowledge that Serbia, Montenegro and many other countries host concerts of artists who no longer perform in Russia, as many prominent cultural figures have emigrated, as well.
Emigrants have created a compelling social environment, opening cultural centers and libraries where meetings with famous Russian emigrant writers take place, as well as cafes with the usual Russian-European or Asian cuisine; holding tournaments with favorite Russian board games; and staging quests and stand-up shows.
Serbia-specific reasons for Russian emigrants to stay include Serbs’ historical fondness of Russians, the similarity of the Russian and Serbian languages, a milder climate (you often here “it was worth moving here just for the climate”) and cherishment of children. Meanwhile, some emigrants like the more patriarchal relations between people in Serbia compared to Western Europe, along with Orthodoxy and the low numbers of migrants from Arab and African countries.
Serbia’s advantages as an immigrant-friendly country
Will emigrants change their mind if the regime in Russia becomes more democratic and/or the postwar economy improves? In this case, the choice of the majority is less obvious and looks set to depend to a greater extent on how successfully individual emigrants will have adapted to their new home and how attractive the rewards for returning will be.
Hence the conclusion: it makes sense for any Russian government not to push away emigrants – as the speaker of the Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, and others are doing now – but to try to persuade them to come back, at least temporarily (through fixed-term work contracts, invitations for skilled workers, etc.). An important step would be to stop the persecution of scientists and scholars.
In the coming decade, the trend of mass migration is likely to continue across the globe, mostly from third-world countries and countries with unstable political systems and/or weak economies, regardless of whether politicians want it or not. The winners will be countries that can attract the most promising immigrants while mitigating the negative consequences of immigration.
One of Serbia’s advantages in this regard is the simplified procedure for issuing residence permits: currently, temporary ones are issued for three years and, if residency is needed for work or to open a company, can be obtained online even before entering the country. After that, permanent residency and then citizenship can be applied for.
Emigrants often point out that Europeans are friendlier and more willing to help, while the pace of life in Europe is slower, meaning more time for people to focus on themselves. In addition, Russians appreciate the healthy relationships between people, safety and absence of crime and corruption at the everyday level. Even those who missed the glamour and dynamic cultural life of Moscow and St Petersburg in the first year after moving abroad, now acknowledge that Serbia, Montenegro and many other countries host concerts of artists who no longer perform in Russia, as many prominent cultural figures have emigrated, as well.
Emigrants have created a compelling social environment, opening cultural centers and libraries where meetings with famous Russian emigrant writers take place, as well as cafes with the usual Russian-European or Asian cuisine; holding tournaments with favorite Russian board games; and staging quests and stand-up shows.
Serbia-specific reasons for Russian emigrants to stay include Serbs’ historical fondness of Russians, the similarity of the Russian and Serbian languages, a milder climate (you often here “it was worth moving here just for the climate”) and cherishment of children. Meanwhile, some emigrants like the more patriarchal relations between people in Serbia compared to Western Europe, along with Orthodoxy and the low numbers of migrants from Arab and African countries.
Serbia’s advantages as an immigrant-friendly country
Will emigrants change their mind if the regime in Russia becomes more democratic and/or the postwar economy improves? In this case, the choice of the majority is less obvious and looks set to depend to a greater extent on how successfully individual emigrants will have adapted to their new home and how attractive the rewards for returning will be.
Hence the conclusion: it makes sense for any Russian government not to push away emigrants – as the speaker of the Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, and others are doing now – but to try to persuade them to come back, at least temporarily (through fixed-term work contracts, invitations for skilled workers, etc.). An important step would be to stop the persecution of scientists and scholars.
In the coming decade, the trend of mass migration is likely to continue across the globe, mostly from third-world countries and countries with unstable political systems and/or weak economies, regardless of whether politicians want it or not. The winners will be countries that can attract the most promising immigrants while mitigating the negative consequences of immigration.
One of Serbia’s advantages in this regard is the simplified procedure for issuing residence permits: currently, temporary ones are issued for three years and, if residency is needed for work or to open a company, can be obtained online even before entering the country. After that, permanent residency and then citizenship can be applied for.
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