SOCIETY
Russia to Face Crime Wave as War Veterans Return
March 24, 2025
- Mikhail TeginJournalist
Journalist Mikhail Tegin speaks with an ex-silovik, a lawyer, a political analyst and a human rights activist, about how Russia – already facing a severe police shortage – will tackle the expected surge in crime after the end of the Ukraine war.
The original text in Russian was published in Republic. We are republishing it here with small changes and with their permission.
Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Minister of Internal Affairs. Source: VK
In early March, Internal Affairs Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev revealed that every second beat officer had left the force in the past year, which brought total vacancies in the Internal Affairs Ministry to over 172,000 across the country – a jump of 33,000 in a single year. In some regions, nearly a third of police personnel are lacking, raising serious concerns about crime, particularly with the return of Ukraine war veterans, including former convicts with serious criminal records.
Official Internal Affairs Ministry data
At an extended meeting of the Internal Affairs Ministry board, attended by Vladimir Putin, Kolokoltsev detailed the crisis: the number of daily patrols in Russia has fallen by 25% over five years, while district police departments have seen nearly 100% turnover in six years. More than 20% of positions remain unfilled in 39 out of the 96 regional police forces.
Official Internal Affairs Ministry data
At an extended meeting of the Internal Affairs Ministry board, attended by Vladimir Putin, Kolokoltsev detailed the crisis: the number of daily patrols in Russia has fallen by 25% over five years, while district police departments have seen nearly 100% turnover in six years. More than 20% of positions remain unfilled in 39 out of the 96 regional police forces.
“In some regions, the problem is particularly acute: for example, in Primorye and Ivanovo the police are working at two-third strength.”
At the level of city police departments, the situation is no better. For example, in Yekaterinburg the number of unfilled positions reaches 30% and staff turnover is increasing: 40% of employees quit before they are eligible for a pension.
In some area (rayonny) departments, including in Moscow, more than half of positions are unfilled. Kolokoltsev complained that this was affecting key police functions. In Magadan Region, every second investigator position is vacant, while in Smolensk Region, 40% of antidrug units lack staff.
The last time Kolokoltsev discussed the Internal Affairs Ministry worker shortage was in May 2024. At that time, it was said to be 152,000 positions. “We cannot print money and increase salaries, which is the main motivation for people to serve in the [Internal Affairs Ministry]. The situation has not just changed, it has worsened,” he stressed.
At the same time, Putin regularly demands more hiring at the Internal Affairs Ministry. In particular, in 2022 he ordered an increase in the number of employees to 922,000 by 2023 and to almost 940,000 by 2025.
In some area (rayonny) departments, including in Moscow, more than half of positions are unfilled. Kolokoltsev complained that this was affecting key police functions. In Magadan Region, every second investigator position is vacant, while in Smolensk Region, 40% of antidrug units lack staff.
The last time Kolokoltsev discussed the Internal Affairs Ministry worker shortage was in May 2024. At that time, it was said to be 152,000 positions. “We cannot print money and increase salaries, which is the main motivation for people to serve in the [Internal Affairs Ministry]. The situation has not just changed, it has worsened,” he stressed.
At the same time, Putin regularly demands more hiring at the Internal Affairs Ministry. In particular, in 2022 he ordered an increase in the number of employees to 922,000 by 2023 and to almost 940,000 by 2025.
Police officers at the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. Source: VK
‘Nobody wants to work in such a stressful atmosphere’
The personnel issues are confirmed by local officials. “We are short of 31% across the entire garrison,” admitted Viktor Poznyak, the new head of Yekaterinburg’s city police headquarters.
Siloviki, speaking anonymously to the local press, describe how many investigators fled from Yekaterinburg’s Police Department No. 15, responsible for the infamous Uralmash microdistrict, citing a “stressful atmosphere” and low wages. “Nobody wants to work in such a stressful atmosphere anymore, people cannot take it. Overall, the situation is difficult: the duties of all those who leave are dumped on those who remain in the ranks,” one officer said.
“There is zero motivation. Every grifter writes memos against you. There is no gratitude, and the problems and stress are the size of a skyscraper. Just imagine that in some hospital, there are no nurses and the doctors are filling in for them. That’s how it is in these police departments now,” said another former silovik who recently left the force.
Staff shortages inevitably mean endless working hours. In turn, the high workload is an additional factor in attrition, closing this vicious circle.
Former Internal Affairs Ministry employees are finding work elsewhere. Many now are in private security. In Yekaterinburg, some police officers left for Ozon’s marketplace security team, where salaries start at RUB 98,000 a month, the schedule is stable and “you understand what you are getting paid for.” For comparison: police officers generally make much less than the national average: a district police officer is paid RUB 49,000 a month and a watchman RUB 35,000.
Others, judging by social media and Telegram, have sought higher wages in the military. Yevgeny Smirnov, a lawyer with the Pervy Otdel (Dept. One) project, told Republic: “the Internal Affairs Ministry also has a quota for the army; that is, the state requires the Internal Affairs Ministry to send people to the war. I know retired men were called by HR and begged to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry to go to Ukraine or return to [the Internal Affairs Ministry].”
The labor shortage extends beyond the police. For example, the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) is currently short of almost 54,000 workers, as reported by FSIN Director Arkady Gostev at an expanded board meeting of the agency to recap 2024. He claims the shortage over the past five years has grown to 23% (of the whole agency), while for certain categories of employees at some territorial sites it exceeds 40%.
At end-2024, the head of the Judicial Department at Russia’s Supreme Court, Vladislav Ivanov, complained that the country was short of about 20% of the judges it needed. Over the previous year, the number increased by 29% in arbitration courts, 18% in courts of general jurisdiction and 13% among justices of the peace. Ivanov named low pay, high responsibility and professional burnout as the main reasons for the shortage of judges.
Inevitable rise in crime
In January 2024, Vladimir Putin said there were 600,000 troops in the combat zone in Ukraine. This number was clearly exaggerated. According to Western experts, no more than 470,000 Russians are fighting in Ukraine (according to an IISS blog, “Russian recruitment, including the forced mobilization in occupied Donbas, the mobilization in 2022 and recruiting from the prison system, has generated approximately 976,000 personnel for the war effort”).
In Russia, as Novaya Gazeta noted, the period 2002-21 saw a steady decline in the number of registered murders and attempted murders. But with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this figure began to rise. According to Internal Affairs Ministry statistics, in 2022 alone 7,628 murders and attempted murders were registered in Russia, up 4% versus 2021, while the number went up another 14% in 2023 before reaching a near-15-year high in 2024.
The personnel issues are confirmed by local officials. “We are short of 31% across the entire garrison,” admitted Viktor Poznyak, the new head of Yekaterinburg’s city police headquarters.
Siloviki, speaking anonymously to the local press, describe how many investigators fled from Yekaterinburg’s Police Department No. 15, responsible for the infamous Uralmash microdistrict, citing a “stressful atmosphere” and low wages. “Nobody wants to work in such a stressful atmosphere anymore, people cannot take it. Overall, the situation is difficult: the duties of all those who leave are dumped on those who remain in the ranks,” one officer said.
“There is zero motivation. Every grifter writes memos against you. There is no gratitude, and the problems and stress are the size of a skyscraper. Just imagine that in some hospital, there are no nurses and the doctors are filling in for them. That’s how it is in these police departments now,” said another former silovik who recently left the force.
Staff shortages inevitably mean endless working hours. In turn, the high workload is an additional factor in attrition, closing this vicious circle.
Former Internal Affairs Ministry employees are finding work elsewhere. Many now are in private security. In Yekaterinburg, some police officers left for Ozon’s marketplace security team, where salaries start at RUB 98,000 a month, the schedule is stable and “you understand what you are getting paid for.” For comparison: police officers generally make much less than the national average: a district police officer is paid RUB 49,000 a month and a watchman RUB 35,000.
Others, judging by social media and Telegram, have sought higher wages in the military. Yevgeny Smirnov, a lawyer with the Pervy Otdel (Dept. One) project, told Republic: “the Internal Affairs Ministry also has a quota for the army; that is, the state requires the Internal Affairs Ministry to send people to the war. I know retired men were called by HR and begged to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry to go to Ukraine or return to [the Internal Affairs Ministry].”
The labor shortage extends beyond the police. For example, the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) is currently short of almost 54,000 workers, as reported by FSIN Director Arkady Gostev at an expanded board meeting of the agency to recap 2024. He claims the shortage over the past five years has grown to 23% (of the whole agency), while for certain categories of employees at some territorial sites it exceeds 40%.
At end-2024, the head of the Judicial Department at Russia’s Supreme Court, Vladislav Ivanov, complained that the country was short of about 20% of the judges it needed. Over the previous year, the number increased by 29% in arbitration courts, 18% in courts of general jurisdiction and 13% among justices of the peace. Ivanov named low pay, high responsibility and professional burnout as the main reasons for the shortage of judges.
Inevitable rise in crime
In January 2024, Vladimir Putin said there were 600,000 troops in the combat zone in Ukraine. This number was clearly exaggerated. According to Western experts, no more than 470,000 Russians are fighting in Ukraine (according to an IISS blog, “Russian recruitment, including the forced mobilization in occupied Donbas, the mobilization in 2022 and recruiting from the prison system, has generated approximately 976,000 personnel for the war effort”).
In Russia, as Novaya Gazeta noted, the period 2002-21 saw a steady decline in the number of registered murders and attempted murders. But with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this figure began to rise. According to Internal Affairs Ministry statistics, in 2022 alone 7,628 murders and attempted murders were registered in Russia, up 4% versus 2021, while the number went up another 14% in 2023 before reaching a near-15-year high in 2024.
“The main contributor to the crime increase is the regions bordering Ukraine.”
This is due largely to the homecoming of former convicts who were recruited by Wagner PMC or the Defense Ministry and have now cleared their rap sheets by fighting in the war. Human rights activists have repeatedly stressed in conversations with Republic that the war-related boom in violence is still to come.
One of the consequences of any war is more murders, robberies and cases of serious physical harm.
According to archival data, 7,131 murders were registered in the USSR in 1944, 7,969 in 1945 and 10,200 in 1946. The number of registered robberies, meanwhile, soared from 13,300 in 1945 to 29,300 in 1946. Studies of US servicemen who fought in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria or other countries after 9/11 also confirmed that spending time in a combat zone significantly increases the chances of committing domestic violence and other crimes in the future.
Experts note that since the beginning of the war, many Ukraine veterans have faced PTSD. According to international studies, PTSD affects up to 35% of soldiers on average, meaning at least 150,000 soldiers and civilians coming back to Russia after the war will need psychological help.
‘It will be a frightening time’
Yevgeny Smirnov agrees: following any war, violent crime always increases sharply, including murders, robberies and rapes. This is because violence becomes the norm for the mentally traumatized men returning from the front lines. “They get used to solving problems the way they did [at war],” the lawyer points out.
Psychologist and publicist Lyudmila Petranovskaya spoke about this in an interview with Republic. She warned that many Ukraine veterans may be psychologically unstable, with their loved ones and Russian society as a whole advised to exercise caution around them.
The second reason for the rise of violence in society, Smirnov says, is that many people who committed crimes have found a way to avoid punishment.
One of the consequences of any war is more murders, robberies and cases of serious physical harm.
According to archival data, 7,131 murders were registered in the USSR in 1944, 7,969 in 1945 and 10,200 in 1946. The number of registered robberies, meanwhile, soared from 13,300 in 1945 to 29,300 in 1946. Studies of US servicemen who fought in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria or other countries after 9/11 also confirmed that spending time in a combat zone significantly increases the chances of committing domestic violence and other crimes in the future.
Experts note that since the beginning of the war, many Ukraine veterans have faced PTSD. According to international studies, PTSD affects up to 35% of soldiers on average, meaning at least 150,000 soldiers and civilians coming back to Russia after the war will need psychological help.
‘It will be a frightening time’
Yevgeny Smirnov agrees: following any war, violent crime always increases sharply, including murders, robberies and rapes. This is because violence becomes the norm for the mentally traumatized men returning from the front lines. “They get used to solving problems the way they did [at war],” the lawyer points out.
Psychologist and publicist Lyudmila Petranovskaya spoke about this in an interview with Republic. She warned that many Ukraine veterans may be psychologically unstable, with their loved ones and Russian society as a whole advised to exercise caution around them.
The second reason for the rise of violence in society, Smirnov says, is that many people who committed crimes have found a way to avoid punishment.
“Many war veterans who served time in prison already have medals and certificates for their service in the war, and they are being invited to schools to talk about their heroic deeds.”
Police disperse anti-war demonstration, March 2022. Source: Youtube
“It will be a frightening time,” says Smirnov.
“Of course, the acute shortage of personnel in the police directly affects how [well and how many] crimes are solved. Policemen currently have extremely low incentive to carry out detective work. And what will happen next, after the end of the so-called special military operation, is hard to imagine. But one thing is for sure: the crimes of these soldiers will take much longer to solve. Probably, many offenses or crimes will go ‘cold.’ This… could cause outbursts of negativity in society – people will gather and demand that the authorities bring the perpetrators to justice. Often in such cases, scapegoats are found, i.e., the cases are fabricated,” a former policeman who now works as a lawyer in Yekaterinburg told Republic.
The lawyer cites the extremely low prestige of police service, the discrediting of the Internal Affairs Ministry by other agencies, low pay and a stressful work environment as the main reasons for the shortage of police officers. “Only 5% is left of the authority of the Soviet police, which the current police succeeded. So it is no wonder no one wants to go to work for the police,” the lawyer argues.
According to political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov, some Ukraine veterans will fill the personnel shortage at the Internal Affairs Ministry, while others will go back to prison. In any case, the “marginalization” of society looks inevitable. “Some will want to work as ‘heroes’ – to be figureheads, to pass on wisdom to younger generations. So the problems of the labor market are unlikely to go away,” Kolesnikov told Republic.
Experts warn of further tightening of the screws in the country. Repression has intensified significantly since the start of the war. Since then, as Eva Levenberg, a lawyer for the human rights project OVD-Info, told Republic, there have been over 21,000 arrests and at least 370 defendants in criminal cases for antiwar statements and speeches.
After the war, the [repression] dynamics will depend on how the authorities present the end of the conflict to society, argues Smirnov. If it is perceived as a complete victory, then there may be some slowdown
.
“But I am inclined to expect that the state, which for many years has divided society into friend and foe, which has raised an entire army for repression, will continue to look for traitors and terrorists after the end of the war,” says Smirnov.
What role Ukraine war veterans themselves might play in future repression is an ambiguous question. According to the human rights activist and Sova Center director, Alexander Verkhovsky, veterans of the so-called special military operation are unlikely to be direct perpetrators of repression. Unless the state orders or allows “horizontal repression” – for example, systematic targeting of people and organizations that veterans do not like.
“I do not mean just writing complaints, as is the case now. But rather acting as Russkaya Obshchina (“Russian Community”; an ultra-right, nationalist, Islamophobic, antiimmigrant and pro-Kremlin organization; see Russia.Post here and here) and similar groups do in some cases,” Verkhovsky explains.
He stipulates that the Kremlin will probably try to avoid this. But to what extent it will succeed is an open question, because yesterday’s soldiers will have to be reintegrated into civilian life, and they will have to be met halfway in some way or another.
“Of course, the acute shortage of personnel in the police directly affects how [well and how many] crimes are solved. Policemen currently have extremely low incentive to carry out detective work. And what will happen next, after the end of the so-called special military operation, is hard to imagine. But one thing is for sure: the crimes of these soldiers will take much longer to solve. Probably, many offenses or crimes will go ‘cold.’ This… could cause outbursts of negativity in society – people will gather and demand that the authorities bring the perpetrators to justice. Often in such cases, scapegoats are found, i.e., the cases are fabricated,” a former policeman who now works as a lawyer in Yekaterinburg told Republic.
The lawyer cites the extremely low prestige of police service, the discrediting of the Internal Affairs Ministry by other agencies, low pay and a stressful work environment as the main reasons for the shortage of police officers. “Only 5% is left of the authority of the Soviet police, which the current police succeeded. So it is no wonder no one wants to go to work for the police,” the lawyer argues.
According to political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov, some Ukraine veterans will fill the personnel shortage at the Internal Affairs Ministry, while others will go back to prison. In any case, the “marginalization” of society looks inevitable. “Some will want to work as ‘heroes’ – to be figureheads, to pass on wisdom to younger generations. So the problems of the labor market are unlikely to go away,” Kolesnikov told Republic.
Experts warn of further tightening of the screws in the country. Repression has intensified significantly since the start of the war. Since then, as Eva Levenberg, a lawyer for the human rights project OVD-Info, told Republic, there have been over 21,000 arrests and at least 370 defendants in criminal cases for antiwar statements and speeches.
After the war, the [repression] dynamics will depend on how the authorities present the end of the conflict to society, argues Smirnov. If it is perceived as a complete victory, then there may be some slowdown
.
“But I am inclined to expect that the state, which for many years has divided society into friend and foe, which has raised an entire army for repression, will continue to look for traitors and terrorists after the end of the war,” says Smirnov.
What role Ukraine war veterans themselves might play in future repression is an ambiguous question. According to the human rights activist and Sova Center director, Alexander Verkhovsky, veterans of the so-called special military operation are unlikely to be direct perpetrators of repression. Unless the state orders or allows “horizontal repression” – for example, systematic targeting of people and organizations that veterans do not like.
“I do not mean just writing complaints, as is the case now. But rather acting as Russkaya Obshchina (“Russian Community”; an ultra-right, nationalist, Islamophobic, antiimmigrant and pro-Kremlin organization; see Russia.Post here and here) and similar groups do in some cases,” Verkhovsky explains.
He stipulates that the Kremlin will probably try to avoid this. But to what extent it will succeed is an open question, because yesterday’s soldiers will have to be reintegrated into civilian life, and they will have to be met halfway in some way or another.
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