Since late December, the largest protests in Iran’s 50-year history have continued, triggered by the collapse of the national currency, the rial. Protesters soon advanced political demands, including calls for the overthrow of Iran’s supreme leader and the restoration of the monarchy. The regime responded with harsh repression. Thousands of deaths have been reported, though information remains extremely fragmentary, as the authorities have cut off the country from the global internet during the protests.

The White House reacted sharply to the brutal suppression of the protests. President Trump threatened Iran with “very strong action” if the executions of protesters continued. For several days, US media outlets were discussing a possible US strike on Iran. Trump later moderated his rhetoric, stating that Tehran had postponed the execution of 800 protesters and that Arab intermediaries had persuaded him to back down.

Friendship out of necessity

Iran has become an important partner for Russia amid the latter’s growing foreign policy isolation in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As a result, many observers closely followed Moscow’s reaction to events in Tehran and expected Russia to support the Iranian authorities. Citing UK intelligence, The Times reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has a backup plan to be evacuated to Moscow.

Iran has been among the few countries willing to supply Russia with weapons since 2022. According to Western intelligence assessments, Tehran has provided Russia with guided missiles, artillery shells and ammunition. The total value of these supplies is relatively modest, approximately estimated at $4 billion.

The deal to supply Iranian Shahed drones to Russia, starting in 2022, is widely known. These drones played an important role in Russia’s invasion, enabling relatively inexpensive large-scale strikes deep in the Ukrainian rear. According to Middle East analyst Ruslan Suleimanov, Russia no longer depends on Iran for drones, as production of the Shahed has now been almost fully localized in Tatarstan.

In 2025, Moscow and Tehran signed a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. On the one hand, it declares the intention to expand cooperation between the two countries. On the other hand, as several commentators have noted, the treaty imposes no direct obligations on the parties – apart from a commitment not to support third countries in the event of an attack on the other – and largely formalizes the already-elevated level of cooperation. The security-related provisions of the agreement almost entirely match those of a similar treaty signed in 2001.

Still, recent years have seen tangible warming in Russia-Iran relations. In 2025, a free trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union – the customs union that includes Russia and several former Soviet republics – entered into force. In addition, Moscow and Tehran have begun integrating their national payment systems, with Iran being among the few countries outside of Russia where Russian Mir cards can be used for payments.

A ‘color revolution’ in Iran

Moscow has openly supported the authorities in Tehran. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova described the protests as “outside inspired unrest” and compared them to “color revolutions,” blaming them on “illegal Western sanctions pressure.” Zakharova focused on reports of possible US interference in Iran, condemning both potential US strikes and threats to impose higher tariffs on Iran’s foreign partners. (Trump has announced that countries trading with Iran could face a 25% US tariff.)

“The marches with many thousands of Iranians in support of the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic are a guarantee of the failure of the sinister plans of those who cannot make peace with the very existence on the international stage of states capable of pursuing an independent foreign policy course and choosing their own friends,” Zakharova said.

Russia has also sought to present itself as a mediator. Putin held telephone conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which the Kremlin described as an attempt to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Putin himself has made no public statements regarding the situation in Iran.

The Washington Post had previously reported that Israel and Iran, with Russia acting as an intermediary, had privately exchanged mutual guarantees against attacks. According to the newspaper, in late December – before the mass protests began – Israel signaled through Moscow that it would refrain from striking Iran unless it were attacked first. Tehran reportedly made a reciprocal commitment not to undertake preemptive military action.

Russian state media have covered the protests in Iran in a manner broadly consistent with the Foreign Ministry’s line. The state news agency TASS has largely avoided reporting casualties among protesters, instead emphasizing – citing the Iranian authorities – that the actions of “pogromists” had resulted in the deaths of law enforcement officers and civilians. Rossiyskaya Gazeta similarly cites official Iranian statements and claims that the law enforcement agencies have the situation under control.

Russian television has used even harsher language. For example, a report on Russia-1 claimed that it was not law enforcement officers who opened fire on protesters but rather “armed terrorists.” Analysts on Russia’s Channel One linked the protests to hostile actions by external forces, primarily the US and Israel.

Russia’s support has its limits

Middle East analyst Nikita Smagin, who frequently comments on events in Iran for Russian media outlets operating from abroad, notes that the Russian leadership views events in Iran negatively for at least two reasons: first, Moscow has managed to set up cooperation with Iran’s current political leadership amid sanctions and heightened international isolation since 2022; second, the Kremlin is generally hostile to attempts to overthrow authoritarian governments, fearing that the same thing could happen in Russia.

Smagin notes that Moscow is providing Tehran with limited military assistance. During the protests, reports emerged that Russian Mi-28 helicopters and Il-76 military transport aircraft – deliveries announced for 2023 – had arrived in Iran, along with Spartak armored vehicles. According to Smagin, this equipment could prove useful if the protests were to escalate into a full-scale armed uprising.

At the same time, Smagin argues that Moscow is unlikely to take decisive measures: “Russia, of course, will not try to save the Islamic Republic if that comes at the cost of its own resources, risking [Russian] soldiers, military personnel or anything else,” he says.

“As in Syria, if the situation truly deteriorates, Russia will likely step aside. But as long as [the regime] is not wobbling, or wobbling only a bit, Russia is prepared to help with weapons and perhaps some advice. That said, the possibility that Khamenei could suddenly flee the country and find refuge in Moscow should not be ruled out. That is entirely possible.”