SOCIETY
The Lesser of Two Evils: Russians Timidly Lean Toward Trump
November 6, 2024
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Denis Volkov
Director of the Levada Center (Moscow)
Sociologist Denis Volkov breaks down October surveys by the Levada Center showing low interest in the US presidential election among Russians. While there is more support for Trump, people generally remain skeptical about his ability to improve US-Russia relations and end the Ukraine conflict.
The original text in Russian was published in Forbes and is being republished here with their permission.
Who follows the US presidential race
This year, interest in the US presidential race in Russia is somewhat higher than the last two elections. To take only those who closely follow the race, this year their share was 19%, significantly higher than in 2020 and 2016, when it was 11% and 15%, respectively.
Russian men, older segments of the population and people with higher education are more likely to follow the US election – as is true with political events in general. We do not find that TV viewers pay more attention than average.
This year, interest in the US presidential race in Russia is somewhat higher than the last two elections. To take only those who closely follow the race, this year their share was 19%, significantly higher than in 2020 and 2016, when it was 11% and 15%, respectively.
Russian men, older segments of the population and people with higher education are more likely to follow the US election – as is true with political events in general. We do not find that TV viewers pay more attention than average.
“Though the audience of more anti-Kremlin Telegram channels and YouTube follow what is going on in the US, pro-regime Russians tend to be more interested in the US presidential election.”
November 6, 2024: Donald Trump wins. Source: VK
This suggests that the informed Russian public’s view is driven largely by the agenda set by official media through TV, social media and Telegram.
Russian interest in the presidential race appeared to peak in the middle of the summer with the assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania and Joe Biden’s decision not to run for a second term.
These events, along with the special operation in Ukraine and the Olympics in Paris, were named by our respondents as the most memorable in July, which was not rich in events. Just the next month, however, the US election was pushed far into the background by the Ukrainian army’s incursion into Kursk Region, while October was dominated by the BRICS summit in Kazan.
Who do Russians like?
Most Russians believe that it does not matter who the next US president is, with about half of those surveyed saying this. The rest are more likely to lean toward Trump (more than a third of them), while only 5% of Russians support Kamala Harris.
Among people who closely follow the US election, Trump supporters predominate, making up 52% of this group. Meanwhile, among those who report no interest in the US election, two thirds do not sympathize with any candidate.
Other questions reveal that Russians favor Trump.
Russian interest in the presidential race appeared to peak in the middle of the summer with the assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania and Joe Biden’s decision not to run for a second term.
These events, along with the special operation in Ukraine and the Olympics in Paris, were named by our respondents as the most memorable in July, which was not rich in events. Just the next month, however, the US election was pushed far into the background by the Ukrainian army’s incursion into Kursk Region, while October was dominated by the BRICS summit in Kazan.
Who do Russians like?
Most Russians believe that it does not matter who the next US president is, with about half of those surveyed saying this. The rest are more likely to lean toward Trump (more than a third of them), while only 5% of Russians support Kamala Harris.
Among people who closely follow the US election, Trump supporters predominate, making up 52% of this group. Meanwhile, among those who report no interest in the US election, two thirds do not sympathize with any candidate.
Other questions reveal that Russians favor Trump.
“Almost half the country is certain that Russia-US relations will not change regardless of who is elected the next US president.”
But a third of respondents believe that relations may improve if Trump wins, while only 9% see a deterioration in store; on the contrary, under a Harris administration a third of Russians expect a further deterioration, versus only 6% who think that things will get better between the US and Russia.
Trump is preferred as the lesser of two evils. It can be said that Russian public opinion about the US election largely echoes the view of the Russian political elite, as formulated by ex-President Dmitri Medvedev in a Telegram post: “for Russia, the election will not change anything, the candidates’ positions fully reflect a bipartisan consensus on the need to defeat our country.”
Rare mentions of the US election in focus groups show that confidence that the situation will not change and sympathy for Trump can organically fuse: “it is clear that nothing will change, but some aspects may change if Trump wins, so we are again hoping for the best, though it is unlikely.”
Such skepticism is entirely justified. Especially if we recall how quickly Russian public opinion became disillusioned with Trump during his first term. For example, immediately after his victory in 2016, more than half of Russians hoped for a relaxation of tensions between Russia and the US, but by the end of Trump’s first year in office, an absolute majority said that would not happen.
As one of our focus group participants noted eight years ago: “at first, they all promise mountains of gold. We have to wait and see. Obama also said a lot of good things at first.” It seems that people have learned not to believe everything that politicians say before an election, no matter whether it is in Russia or the US.
Russians’ hopes for Trump were clearly disappointed in his first term. In the 2020 race, only 16% wanted him to win – half as many as four years earlier. Biden polled only slightly behind Trump in Russia. At that time, a record two thirds of respondents saw no difference between the Republican and the Democrat.
Why has support for Trump in Russia risen since then?
A partner for negotiations
The answer is obvious: in February 2022, Russia launched its special operation in Ukraine, and most Russians from the very beginning blamed the US – more precisely, the Biden administration. Because, as focus group participants say today, “nothing like this happened under Trump.”
Against this backdrop, anti-American sentiment has sharply picked up in Russia, since – according to the responses to an open-ended question – the US “is pursuing an anti-Russia policy,” supplying Ukraine with weapons, imposing sanctions, generally “dictating its will” to other countries and “unleashing wars around the world.” Almost two thirds of Russians today think that the Ukraine conflict might escalate into a full-scale war between Russia and the West, led by the US and NATO.
Obviously, most Russians would not like things to play out like that.
Trump is preferred as the lesser of two evils. It can be said that Russian public opinion about the US election largely echoes the view of the Russian political elite, as formulated by ex-President Dmitri Medvedev in a Telegram post: “for Russia, the election will not change anything, the candidates’ positions fully reflect a bipartisan consensus on the need to defeat our country.”
Rare mentions of the US election in focus groups show that confidence that the situation will not change and sympathy for Trump can organically fuse: “it is clear that nothing will change, but some aspects may change if Trump wins, so we are again hoping for the best, though it is unlikely.”
Such skepticism is entirely justified. Especially if we recall how quickly Russian public opinion became disillusioned with Trump during his first term. For example, immediately after his victory in 2016, more than half of Russians hoped for a relaxation of tensions between Russia and the US, but by the end of Trump’s first year in office, an absolute majority said that would not happen.
As one of our focus group participants noted eight years ago: “at first, they all promise mountains of gold. We have to wait and see. Obama also said a lot of good things at first.” It seems that people have learned not to believe everything that politicians say before an election, no matter whether it is in Russia or the US.
Russians’ hopes for Trump were clearly disappointed in his first term. In the 2020 race, only 16% wanted him to win – half as many as four years earlier. Biden polled only slightly behind Trump in Russia. At that time, a record two thirds of respondents saw no difference between the Republican and the Democrat.
Why has support for Trump in Russia risen since then?
A partner for negotiations
The answer is obvious: in February 2022, Russia launched its special operation in Ukraine, and most Russians from the very beginning blamed the US – more precisely, the Biden administration. Because, as focus group participants say today, “nothing like this happened under Trump.”
Against this backdrop, anti-American sentiment has sharply picked up in Russia, since – according to the responses to an open-ended question – the US “is pursuing an anti-Russia policy,” supplying Ukraine with weapons, imposing sanctions, generally “dictating its will” to other countries and “unleashing wars around the world.” Almost two thirds of Russians today think that the Ukraine conflict might escalate into a full-scale war between Russia and the West, led by the US and NATO.
Obviously, most Russians would not like things to play out like that.
“More than half have long been in favor of a transition to peace talks on Ukraine and an easing of tensions with Western countries.”
Damaged buildings in Avdiivka, Ukraine. January 2024. Trump has promised to quickly end the conflict in Ukraine, but Russians are skeptical.
Source: Wiki Commons
Source: Wiki Commons
At the same time, many do not know with whom Russia can conduct such negotiations. A significant portion of our respondents do not perceive Volodymyr Zelensky as an independent figure, seeing the shadow of the US behind him: “Zelensky belongs to someone else,” “there is nothing to discuss with him.”
Meanwhile, Biden, in the eyes of many Russians, has long been a lame duck in the US, with his position weakening to the point that he could not even run for reelection.
Our focus groups say: “in a great power like the US, the president cannot manage anything,” “he can barely get around,” “he is not making the decisions.” And that’s why “no negotiations are possible” with him and “it’s pointless to talk to him.” Little is known about Harris. The situation looks like a dead end.
It is against this backdrop that a third of Russians are placing timid hopes on Trump. He looks like someone with whom Russia can at least try to negotiate. Focus group participants recalled: “Trump said, ‘I will end the war,’ and so we are waiting for Trump!” Respondents also often voice skepticism, saying that the US has its elites and Trump, unfortunately, “will not overcome [them],” having failed before. To this, the usual answer is: “Maybe he will not, but we are hoping for the best.”
Meanwhile, Biden, in the eyes of many Russians, has long been a lame duck in the US, with his position weakening to the point that he could not even run for reelection.
Our focus groups say: “in a great power like the US, the president cannot manage anything,” “he can barely get around,” “he is not making the decisions.” And that’s why “no negotiations are possible” with him and “it’s pointless to talk to him.” Little is known about Harris. The situation looks like a dead end.
It is against this backdrop that a third of Russians are placing timid hopes on Trump. He looks like someone with whom Russia can at least try to negotiate. Focus group participants recalled: “Trump said, ‘I will end the war,’ and so we are waiting for Trump!” Respondents also often voice skepticism, saying that the US has its elites and Trump, unfortunately, “will not overcome [them],” having failed before. To this, the usual answer is: “Maybe he will not, but we are hoping for the best.”
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