Society
Russians Looking Away from the West, but not Ready to Face the East
October 28, 2024
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Sergei Shelin
Journalist, independent analyst
Journalist Sergei Shelin discusses what the Kremlin’s “pivot to the East” (and away from the West) has meant for the average person in Russia. He argues that neither Iran nor even China has replaced Europe in Russian hearts and minds.
The original text in Russian was published in the Moscow Times and is being republished here with the author’s permission.
The average Russian no longer travels to the West, sees Europeans in his country and rarely consumes real goods from Europe. Whether Russians like being cut off from the West or not, they have seemingly resigned themselves to it.
The average Russian no longer travels to the West, sees Europeans in his country and rarely consumes real goods from Europe. Whether Russians like being cut off from the West or not, they have seemingly resigned themselves to it.
Chinese tourists in Russia, 2024. Source: VK
How do you say ‘hi’ in Chinese?
In 2019, the last year before the pandemic, foreign tourists made 5.1 million visits to Russia. Three out of every 10 tourists (1.5 million) were from China, while the vast majority of the rest came from Europe, the US, South Korea, Japan and other Western countries. More than half a million Germans alone visited. For the East ex-China, meanwhile, Russia was not a major destination, with fewer than a combined 0.15 million tourists coming from the “friendly” countries of Turkey, India and Iran, for example.
Last year, tourist numbers were off 86% versus 2019 at 670,000. The top three nationalities were unchanged: again, around every third visitor was Chinese (200,000), followed by Germans (56,000 – an order of magnitude less!) and Turks (48,000). Then came Emiratis, Iranians and Indians, in that order. Western tourism has practically stopped, but non-Western countries have yet to fill the void.
This year, tourist numbers in the peak summer season were two to three times those in 2023, driven by more trips from Chinese, Indians, Iranians and especially Arabs (from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait).
Many or even most of these visitors, though they identify themselves as tourists, come not to see the sights, but rather to do business. “In contrast to pre-pandemic times, when St Petersburg was the focal point for organized foreign tourism (thanks to the predominant share of Europeans),” the Association of Tour Operators (ATOR) notes melancholically, “in the new reality, about 90% of foreigners traveling to Russia by air arrive in Moscow.”
Now, tourism and tourists in Russia have changed. The chances of meeting and chatting with an American, European or South Korean on a Russian street are close to zero. A Russian is more likely to come across a North Korean nowadays, though the latter is hardly there to chat.
Russia as a declining ‘tourist superpower’
Before Covid and the Ukraine war, Russia was a “tourist superpower, ranking seventh in the world in terms of its citizens’ spending on foreign trips – $35 billion in 2018 or $250 per capita. Of course, not every Russian spent these billions, but the scale is impressive.
Back then, Russians preferred relaxing at resorts to exploring cultural treasures. The country hosting the largest number of tourists from Russia in the pre-pandemic 2019 was Turkey with 5.1 million visitors. It accounted for almost 30% of all trips by Russians. Yet the next 10 countries on that list are generally known for things other than resorts. Moreover, Western countries outnumbered Eastern ones: Germany, Italy, Thailand, Spain, the UAE, Cyprus, Greece, Tunisia, Vietnam and France.
In a span of four year, the outbound tourist flow had halved. Turkey still took first place (4.1 million Russian visitors in 2023), followed by the UAE (1.3 million) and Egypt (1.0 million).
European countries dropped out of the top 10. Three hundred thousand Russians went to China, while the figures for India and Iran were in the tens of thousands. It would seem that these three great nations have much to offer in terms of cultural heritage, not to mention a unique way of life, but Russian travelers have not shown much interest.
In the first six months of 2024, the number of outbound tourists was up 14% year over year, but it is still far below prewar levels. China, though seeing more and more Russian tourists, has yet to crack the top three destinations. Meanwhile, Russians are going to Iran and India even less than in 2023.
While “non-resort” tourism has almost dried up, “resort” tourism is also not as popular as it once was.
In 2019, the last year before the pandemic, foreign tourists made 5.1 million visits to Russia. Three out of every 10 tourists (1.5 million) were from China, while the vast majority of the rest came from Europe, the US, South Korea, Japan and other Western countries. More than half a million Germans alone visited. For the East ex-China, meanwhile, Russia was not a major destination, with fewer than a combined 0.15 million tourists coming from the “friendly” countries of Turkey, India and Iran, for example.
Last year, tourist numbers were off 86% versus 2019 at 670,000. The top three nationalities were unchanged: again, around every third visitor was Chinese (200,000), followed by Germans (56,000 – an order of magnitude less!) and Turks (48,000). Then came Emiratis, Iranians and Indians, in that order. Western tourism has practically stopped, but non-Western countries have yet to fill the void.
This year, tourist numbers in the peak summer season were two to three times those in 2023, driven by more trips from Chinese, Indians, Iranians and especially Arabs (from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait).
Many or even most of these visitors, though they identify themselves as tourists, come not to see the sights, but rather to do business. “In contrast to pre-pandemic times, when St Petersburg was the focal point for organized foreign tourism (thanks to the predominant share of Europeans),” the Association of Tour Operators (ATOR) notes melancholically, “in the new reality, about 90% of foreigners traveling to Russia by air arrive in Moscow.”
Now, tourism and tourists in Russia have changed. The chances of meeting and chatting with an American, European or South Korean on a Russian street are close to zero. A Russian is more likely to come across a North Korean nowadays, though the latter is hardly there to chat.
Russia as a declining ‘tourist superpower’
Before Covid and the Ukraine war, Russia was a “tourist superpower, ranking seventh in the world in terms of its citizens’ spending on foreign trips – $35 billion in 2018 or $250 per capita. Of course, not every Russian spent these billions, but the scale is impressive.
Back then, Russians preferred relaxing at resorts to exploring cultural treasures. The country hosting the largest number of tourists from Russia in the pre-pandemic 2019 was Turkey with 5.1 million visitors. It accounted for almost 30% of all trips by Russians. Yet the next 10 countries on that list are generally known for things other than resorts. Moreover, Western countries outnumbered Eastern ones: Germany, Italy, Thailand, Spain, the UAE, Cyprus, Greece, Tunisia, Vietnam and France.
In a span of four year, the outbound tourist flow had halved. Turkey still took first place (4.1 million Russian visitors in 2023), followed by the UAE (1.3 million) and Egypt (1.0 million).
European countries dropped out of the top 10. Three hundred thousand Russians went to China, while the figures for India and Iran were in the tens of thousands. It would seem that these three great nations have much to offer in terms of cultural heritage, not to mention a unique way of life, but Russian travelers have not shown much interest.
In the first six months of 2024, the number of outbound tourists was up 14% year over year, but it is still far below prewar levels. China, though seeing more and more Russian tourists, has yet to crack the top three destinations. Meanwhile, Russians are going to Iran and India even less than in 2023.
While “non-resort” tourism has almost dried up, “resort” tourism is also not as popular as it once was.
“The reason is that foreign tourism services, even according to official estimates, cost 60% more than they did two years ago.”
Traveling abroad was not for everyone before the war, but now only a small number of Russians can afford it.
When asked by the Levada Center where they vacationed, only 1% of Russians in 2024 said they had gone to foreign countries beyond the former USSR. This compares to 4% back in 2018. In the current situation, perhaps some of the respondents lied about where they went – just in case. But the trend is clear.
The share of those who said they vacationed at Russian resorts has risen over the last six years from 8% to 10%, while the popularity of organized tours within Russia soared from 4% to 9%. This is in line with the official statistics whereby domestic tourism trips rose from 62 million in 2019 to 84 million in 2023.
Tourism is now reminiscent of the Soviet era: like today, the main destinations were domestic, while foreign trips were split between partially accessible Socialist Camp countries and just about inaccessible capitalist countries.
Nowadays, the role of the former is played by Kremlin-designated “friendly countries” and that of the latter by Europe, the US and other Western nations, wherever they may be.
In a few years, a Russian who has seen Europe with his own eyes will become a rarity.
Making do without Western goods
There is no doubt there are fewer European goods being sold in Russia nowadays. But the scale of the decline remains a mystery, as the routes that the goods take to get to Russia have many twists and turns. Still, let’s try to arrive at a rough estimate.
As far as foreign trade is concerned, Russian statistics are now slow and vague. For example, the latest official data on imports of goods is only for January-July, broken down not by country, but by continent.
In these seven months, European goods imports (Rosstat included those from “friendly” Belarus too) came to $41.5 billion (27% of imports), versus $101.5 billion from Asia (66%). Three years ago, in the prewar 2021, $69 billion of goods (43% of goods imports) were imported from European countries and $79 billion (49%) from Asian countries in the same seven-month period. Note that Japan and South Korea used to account for a large share of Russia’s Asian goods imports, whereas now it is almost entirely China, India and Turkey.
When asked by the Levada Center where they vacationed, only 1% of Russians in 2024 said they had gone to foreign countries beyond the former USSR. This compares to 4% back in 2018. In the current situation, perhaps some of the respondents lied about where they went – just in case. But the trend is clear.
The share of those who said they vacationed at Russian resorts has risen over the last six years from 8% to 10%, while the popularity of organized tours within Russia soared from 4% to 9%. This is in line with the official statistics whereby domestic tourism trips rose from 62 million in 2019 to 84 million in 2023.
Tourism is now reminiscent of the Soviet era: like today, the main destinations were domestic, while foreign trips were split between partially accessible Socialist Camp countries and just about inaccessible capitalist countries.
Nowadays, the role of the former is played by Kremlin-designated “friendly countries” and that of the latter by Europe, the US and other Western nations, wherever they may be.
In a few years, a Russian who has seen Europe with his own eyes will become a rarity.
Making do without Western goods
There is no doubt there are fewer European goods being sold in Russia nowadays. But the scale of the decline remains a mystery, as the routes that the goods take to get to Russia have many twists and turns. Still, let’s try to arrive at a rough estimate.
As far as foreign trade is concerned, Russian statistics are now slow and vague. For example, the latest official data on imports of goods is only for January-July, broken down not by country, but by continent.
In these seven months, European goods imports (Rosstat included those from “friendly” Belarus too) came to $41.5 billion (27% of imports), versus $101.5 billion from Asia (66%). Three years ago, in the prewar 2021, $69 billion of goods (43% of goods imports) were imported from European countries and $79 billion (49%) from Asian countries in the same seven-month period. Note that Japan and South Korea used to account for a large share of Russia’s Asian goods imports, whereas now it is almost entirely China, India and Turkey.
“Judging by nominal imports ($153 billion for the seven months of 2024 versus $162 billion for the seven months of 2021), Russian trade has indeed pivoted to the East over these three years.”
Domestic tourism has grown significantly in last few years. Photo: the Church of the Savior on the Yar, built at the end of the 17th century, and a 2007 statue of Evpaty Kolovrat, a thirteenth-century Ryazan warlord. Ryazan, Russia. Source: Wiki Commons
Before the war, Western countries (including non-European ones) supplied a good half of the goods imported to Russia. Now, their share has fallen off, with China emerging as Russia’s key supplier (at least in terms of consumer goods).
Take the car market: in the prewar 2021, Lada family cars accounted for 20% of new car sales in Russia. The other 80% were split between Western brands – Korean, French, German and Japanese. Chinese carmakers were minor players.
Now, about 30% of the market is Lada, while almost all the other new cars sold are Chinese. European and generally Western cars are still imported and sold, but only in small quantities since they are brought in through third countries and accessible to connoisseurs and the rich.
Overall, cars are becoming more out of reach: every third Russian could afford a new car back in 2013, whereas it is every fifth this year. In addition, the choice for average Russians is now limited to Ladas and Chinese makes.
The same is true for other goods. Western products are gradually going by the wayside, replaced by Eastern and domestic ones. It turns out that Russia can make do without Europe, albeit with losses here and there.
Sympathies also pivoting from West to East
China tops the list of countries that Russians today say they like. In a Levada Center survey, 81% of respondents viewed Russia’s southeastern neighbor favorably, versus 9% who had an unfavorable view. China’s position in Russian hearts and minds is rock-solid.
Turkey is seen rather positively (52% to 25%), but its popularity has been declining in recent months. Apparently, the idea is emerging that Erdogan is insufficiently reliable politically. Meanwhile, it is interesting that Iran is held in esteem (50% positive views versus 21% negative views). Even Russian women, albeit with a higher proportion of “hard to say” responses in the survey, approve of the regime that terrorizes women there.
Of course, this is all love from a distance. The explosion of rhetorical sympathy for the East has yet to convert into any desire among Russians to actually get to know these countries, go there, embrace their ways or make friends there.
The newfound hostility toward the West seems more sincere than this love for the East. Once upon a time – a decade ago – France was Russians’ favorite European country. Even in 2015, when Russia-West relations were at their nadir, 77% of respondents had a favorable opinion of France, versus just 13% with an unfavorable one.
Now, the ratio has flipped: 20% to 60%. No need to mention the US (15% to 72%) or the EU as a whole (16% to 71%).
Take the car market: in the prewar 2021, Lada family cars accounted for 20% of new car sales in Russia. The other 80% were split between Western brands – Korean, French, German and Japanese. Chinese carmakers were minor players.
Now, about 30% of the market is Lada, while almost all the other new cars sold are Chinese. European and generally Western cars are still imported and sold, but only in small quantities since they are brought in through third countries and accessible to connoisseurs and the rich.
Overall, cars are becoming more out of reach: every third Russian could afford a new car back in 2013, whereas it is every fifth this year. In addition, the choice for average Russians is now limited to Ladas and Chinese makes.
The same is true for other goods. Western products are gradually going by the wayside, replaced by Eastern and domestic ones. It turns out that Russia can make do without Europe, albeit with losses here and there.
Sympathies also pivoting from West to East
China tops the list of countries that Russians today say they like. In a Levada Center survey, 81% of respondents viewed Russia’s southeastern neighbor favorably, versus 9% who had an unfavorable view. China’s position in Russian hearts and minds is rock-solid.
Turkey is seen rather positively (52% to 25%), but its popularity has been declining in recent months. Apparently, the idea is emerging that Erdogan is insufficiently reliable politically. Meanwhile, it is interesting that Iran is held in esteem (50% positive views versus 21% negative views). Even Russian women, albeit with a higher proportion of “hard to say” responses in the survey, approve of the regime that terrorizes women there.
Of course, this is all love from a distance. The explosion of rhetorical sympathy for the East has yet to convert into any desire among Russians to actually get to know these countries, go there, embrace their ways or make friends there.
The newfound hostility toward the West seems more sincere than this love for the East. Once upon a time – a decade ago – France was Russians’ favorite European country. Even in 2015, when Russia-West relations were at their nadir, 77% of respondents had a favorable opinion of France, versus just 13% with an unfavorable one.
Now, the ratio has flipped: 20% to 60%. No need to mention the US (15% to 72%) or the EU as a whole (16% to 71%).
Tourism is Bashkortostan. Source: VK
The West who?
It is entirely possible that the number of those who continue to like Europe and the West remains considerable, as some of those surveyed might have decided to play it safe and lie. Yet a clear majority of Russians take their cues about friend and foe from the regime and are rather uninterested in what is happening in the West. At least, that is the impression one getsfrom a poll conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) about the upcoming US presidential election.
Broadly speaking, the result was predictable. By a ratio of 2 to 1 (39% to 17%), Russians believe that Donald Trump, who is well liked in Russia, will win. But half of those surveyed said that they have not been following the US election, even casually.
It is entirely possible that the number of those who continue to like Europe and the West remains considerable, as some of those surveyed might have decided to play it safe and lie. Yet a clear majority of Russians take their cues about friend and foe from the regime and are rather uninterested in what is happening in the West. At least, that is the impression one getsfrom a poll conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) about the upcoming US presidential election.
Broadly speaking, the result was predictable. By a ratio of 2 to 1 (39% to 17%), Russians believe that Donald Trump, who is well liked in Russia, will win. But half of those surveyed said that they have not been following the US election, even casually.
“Whereas Russians have at least some opinion of Trump, 65% of respondents to the FOM survey said they were hearing about Kamala Harris for the first time.”
To some extent, this can be explained by a lack of clear signals given by the regime about how its subjects should view this historic election. Still, it seems that mostly they do not find it interesting.
The country has pivoted away from the West, so what does it matter what happens there? At the same time, Russians are no more interested in what is going on in the East.
The country has pivoted away from the West, so what does it matter what happens there? At the same time, Russians are no more interested in what is going on in the East.
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