SOCIETY
Russians See China as the Anti-US, a Counterweight to US Influence
December 18, 2024
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Denis Volkov
Director of the Levada Center (Moscow)
Based on polling data from September 2024 and earlier focus group data, Levada Center Director Denis Volkov argues that many Russians perceive Russia’s current alliance with China as forced, imposed by external circumstances and more beneficial for China than for Russia.
The original text in Russian was published in Gorby magazine. A slightly shortened version is being republished here with the author’s permission.
The first associations that come to an ordinary person’s mind in Russia when he or she hears the word China are mostly positive or neutral. One of the most common is the Great Wall of China. In addition, respondents often mention that China is a large country with a huge population. A quarter of all the associations are Chinese goods, such as phones, cars, household appliances and clothes, with the brands Xiaomi, Huawei and Haval and the online market AliExpress. A large share of Russians also note the high level of development of China’s economy, industry and technology.
The first associations that come to an ordinary person’s mind in Russia when he or she hears the word China are mostly positive or neutral. One of the most common is the Great Wall of China. In addition, respondents often mention that China is a large country with a huge population. A quarter of all the associations are Chinese goods, such as phones, cars, household appliances and clothes, with the brands Xiaomi, Huawei and Haval and the online market AliExpress. A large share of Russians also note the high level of development of China’s economy, industry and technology.
Park Huaming landscape garden in Moscow. Source: Wiki Commons
Made in China
Contact with Chinese goods is now a daily occurrence for Russians, from clothes and shoes to gadgets. Since Western sanctions came into effect, Russian motorists have switched to Chinese cars, and Chinese brands have replaced Western and Japanese ones at car dealerships.
Another quarter of the responses deal with various aspects of Chinese culture: Chinese cuisine and medicine, history, tea ceremony, Chinese dramas and the Chinese language. As for famous Chinese, Mao Zedong, Jackie Chan and Xi Jinping top Russians’ list, followed by Confucius and Bruce Lee.
Older respondents spoke warmly of the Chinese as bearers of “traditional values” such as love of family, respect for elders and collectivism. Despite the cultural differences, they said, this is what makes the Chinese and Russians alike – and what separates them from the “soulless” West.
Negative associations are few. When they do surface, they have to do with previous conflicts, a vague sense of threat from a more powerful neighbor, negative stereotypes about the Chinese and images of China as a dictatorship.
Many Russians are interested in traveling to China, shopping and setting up business links. About 6% of the country has been there (for comparison, about a quarter has been to Europe and no more than 1% to the US), versus almost half of Russian Far Easterners. In addition to China’s rich history, Russian tourists go to the Middle Kingdom for its shopping malls, water parks, amusement parks and skyscrapers, as well as the wild nature of Hainan Island and views of Heaven Lake (Changbaishan Tianchi).
Chinese food stores and Chinese restaurants are opening up in Russian cities. In north Moscow, in the Botanical Garden area, there is a Chinese quarter called Huaming, where Xi Jinping stayed during his recent visit to Russia. Young people are increasingly studying the Chinese language. After a break during the pandemic, Chinese tourists are returning to Moscow and St Petersburg, to Lake Baikal and Vladivostok, and to Murmansk for the northern lights.
A new superpower
Polls show that over the past two or three decades, the Russian public’s image of China has changed significantly (of course, China itself has changed a lot during that time). Twenty years ago, only a fifth of Russians believed that China was a “great power”; today, two thirds think it is. Russians have come to see three great powers in the world: Russia, China and the US. Russian Far Easterners are more likely than their compatriots to say China is a great country, at three quarters of respondents, since it is the Far East where most people have direct contact with Chinese soft power.
Contact with Chinese goods is now a daily occurrence for Russians, from clothes and shoes to gadgets. Since Western sanctions came into effect, Russian motorists have switched to Chinese cars, and Chinese brands have replaced Western and Japanese ones at car dealerships.
Another quarter of the responses deal with various aspects of Chinese culture: Chinese cuisine and medicine, history, tea ceremony, Chinese dramas and the Chinese language. As for famous Chinese, Mao Zedong, Jackie Chan and Xi Jinping top Russians’ list, followed by Confucius and Bruce Lee.
Older respondents spoke warmly of the Chinese as bearers of “traditional values” such as love of family, respect for elders and collectivism. Despite the cultural differences, they said, this is what makes the Chinese and Russians alike – and what separates them from the “soulless” West.
Negative associations are few. When they do surface, they have to do with previous conflicts, a vague sense of threat from a more powerful neighbor, negative stereotypes about the Chinese and images of China as a dictatorship.
Many Russians are interested in traveling to China, shopping and setting up business links. About 6% of the country has been there (for comparison, about a quarter has been to Europe and no more than 1% to the US), versus almost half of Russian Far Easterners. In addition to China’s rich history, Russian tourists go to the Middle Kingdom for its shopping malls, water parks, amusement parks and skyscrapers, as well as the wild nature of Hainan Island and views of Heaven Lake (Changbaishan Tianchi).
Chinese food stores and Chinese restaurants are opening up in Russian cities. In north Moscow, in the Botanical Garden area, there is a Chinese quarter called Huaming, where Xi Jinping stayed during his recent visit to Russia. Young people are increasingly studying the Chinese language. After a break during the pandemic, Chinese tourists are returning to Moscow and St Petersburg, to Lake Baikal and Vladivostok, and to Murmansk for the northern lights.
A new superpower
Polls show that over the past two or three decades, the Russian public’s image of China has changed significantly (of course, China itself has changed a lot during that time). Twenty years ago, only a fifth of Russians believed that China was a “great power”; today, two thirds think it is. Russians have come to see three great powers in the world: Russia, China and the US. Russian Far Easterners are more likely than their compatriots to say China is a great country, at three quarters of respondents, since it is the Far East where most people have direct contact with Chinese soft power.
“Four fifths of Russians believe that China is respected in the international arena, while only two thirds think the same about Russia.”
The prevailing view is that respect for Russia and China in the world has increased over the last decade, while respect for the US has decreased.
Focus group participants have discussed what makes the three countries great. Russia’s strength lies in its wealth of natural resources, its army and its independent foreign policy. The US is the world’s financial center and the largest military power, while China has a huge population and functions as the world’s factory. And while doubts about the outlook for Russia and the US persist – supporters of the government and older people expect an imminent decline of the US, opposition-minded Russians predict Russia’s collapse – there are none with regard to China.
The prevailing opinion is that Beijing will retain its status as a great power for a long time: “China is the future; China is the first country in the world.”
Chinese miracle
Back in the 1990s, the symbol of China was a flea market and goods of dubious quality, whereas today China is perceived as a leading country in terms of economic power, manufacturing and technology. Your author heard several times from focus group participants that even in the 1990s, China “dressed, shod and fed” Russia. Since then, Chinese goods have become a staple of our everyday life – just a small percentage of our respondents do not use anything Chinese.
Unlike Western-made goods, which are consumed by a rather small group of wealthy residents of big Russians cities, Chinese goods have long been well known to Russian consumers in every corner of the country: “they are literally everywhere: technology, clothes, food”; “we literally live on them”; “we have all been using everything Chinese for a long time now.” That’s one of the reasons why the exit of Western brands was generally quite painless for the country.
Whereas before Chinese goods were seen as low-quality – cheap clothes that fade after the first wash or poisonous children’s toys – today their image has changed for the better: “‘Chinese’ does not mean ‘bad.’” People in Russia have learned to distinguish expensive and high-quality Chinese goods from cheap Chinese fakes.
Focus group participants have discussed what makes the three countries great. Russia’s strength lies in its wealth of natural resources, its army and its independent foreign policy. The US is the world’s financial center and the largest military power, while China has a huge population and functions as the world’s factory. And while doubts about the outlook for Russia and the US persist – supporters of the government and older people expect an imminent decline of the US, opposition-minded Russians predict Russia’s collapse – there are none with regard to China.
The prevailing opinion is that Beijing will retain its status as a great power for a long time: “China is the future; China is the first country in the world.”
Chinese miracle
Back in the 1990s, the symbol of China was a flea market and goods of dubious quality, whereas today China is perceived as a leading country in terms of economic power, manufacturing and technology. Your author heard several times from focus group participants that even in the 1990s, China “dressed, shod and fed” Russia. Since then, Chinese goods have become a staple of our everyday life – just a small percentage of our respondents do not use anything Chinese.
Unlike Western-made goods, which are consumed by a rather small group of wealthy residents of big Russians cities, Chinese goods have long been well known to Russian consumers in every corner of the country: “they are literally everywhere: technology, clothes, food”; “we literally live on them”; “we have all been using everything Chinese for a long time now.” That’s one of the reasons why the exit of Western brands was generally quite painless for the country.
Whereas before Chinese goods were seen as low-quality – cheap clothes that fade after the first wash or poisonous children’s toys – today their image has changed for the better: “‘Chinese’ does not mean ‘bad.’” People in Russia have learned to distinguish expensive and high-quality Chinese goods from cheap Chinese fakes.
“During group discussions, we came across the view that China has already overtaken Russia in terms of development and is currently displacing the US.”
This thesis is eloquently illustrated by the drawings of focus group participants, with themes repeated in different parts of the country. Russia was depicted as a rural area, nature, wide open spaces; China, on the contrary, is seen as an industrial landscape, factories and conveyor lines. Respondents are impressed by the rapid pace of China’s transformation: “30 years ago they could not make nothing, they grew rice,” but now “they are developing rapidly, building entire cities in a snap.”
A role model?
China’s developmental leap forward makes the country an attractive model in the eyes of many Russians. China tops various surveys about what country’s experience would be useful for Russia. In focus groups, conversations about China’s achievements are often imbued with bitterness about Russia’s failures. For example, older respondents compare the successes of their neighbor and the collapse of the Soviet project, especially since China was considered a “student” of the USSR for a long time. Now, the student has surpassed the teacher – “we have screwed up our manufacturing, we do not really make anything.”
For younger and more Westernized respondents, China’s experience contrasts with Russia’s recent isolation from the West: “we already had an iron curtain, and again we are behind some fence, constantly fighting with someone,” while “China is moving forward.” Older respondents, on the contrary, see the secret of China’s success in the fact that it – unlike Russia – does not care what others think, a lesson that Russia ought to take, they reckon.
The general belief is that China is doing well because its citizens are hardworking, “ant-like.” But it is these ideas that make respondents doubt that the Chinese experience is applicable to Russia: “we need to learn from them, but we will never become Chinese”; “they work a lot, that is not for a Russian person.”
Some young respondents also noted that China has a harsh political regime: “technology, brands, development, everything is great, but the totalitarian regime – it is not fun for the people there”; “everything is very harsh there, it is scary, God forbid that we should become like that.” So not everyone believes that the Chinese experience can and should be copied.
A counterweight to the West
The contours of current public opinion about China definitively took shape a decade ago, against the backdrop of the conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine. In 2014, the number of Russians who perceived China as friendly doubled from 20% to 40%, while positive attitudes toward the Middle Kingdom rose from 55% to 77%. Similar dynamics played out after February 2022: the latter figure reached a record 92% and the perception of China as friendly hit 65%. Positive attitudes toward China prevail across all sociodemographic groups and all ages.
A role model?
China’s developmental leap forward makes the country an attractive model in the eyes of many Russians. China tops various surveys about what country’s experience would be useful for Russia. In focus groups, conversations about China’s achievements are often imbued with bitterness about Russia’s failures. For example, older respondents compare the successes of their neighbor and the collapse of the Soviet project, especially since China was considered a “student” of the USSR for a long time. Now, the student has surpassed the teacher – “we have screwed up our manufacturing, we do not really make anything.”
For younger and more Westernized respondents, China’s experience contrasts with Russia’s recent isolation from the West: “we already had an iron curtain, and again we are behind some fence, constantly fighting with someone,” while “China is moving forward.” Older respondents, on the contrary, see the secret of China’s success in the fact that it – unlike Russia – does not care what others think, a lesson that Russia ought to take, they reckon.
The general belief is that China is doing well because its citizens are hardworking, “ant-like.” But it is these ideas that make respondents doubt that the Chinese experience is applicable to Russia: “we need to learn from them, but we will never become Chinese”; “they work a lot, that is not for a Russian person.”
Some young respondents also noted that China has a harsh political regime: “technology, brands, development, everything is great, but the totalitarian regime – it is not fun for the people there”; “everything is very harsh there, it is scary, God forbid that we should become like that.” So not everyone believes that the Chinese experience can and should be copied.
A counterweight to the West
The contours of current public opinion about China definitively took shape a decade ago, against the backdrop of the conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine. In 2014, the number of Russians who perceived China as friendly doubled from 20% to 40%, while positive attitudes toward the Middle Kingdom rose from 55% to 77%. Similar dynamics played out after February 2022: the latter figure reached a record 92% and the perception of China as friendly hit 65%. Positive attitudes toward China prevail across all sociodemographic groups and all ages.
“The youngest group of respondents and Russians from the country’s Far East, where Russian-Chinese interaction is most intense, were the most likely to view China favorably.”
Xi Jinping at the 70th Victory Day celebration in Moscow in May 2015. Source: President of Russia
An important symbolic event was Xi Jinping’s presence at the 70th Victory Day celebration in Moscow in May 2015, when Western leaders demonstratively refused to come. This has allowed Russians to think: “as long as China is with us, isolating Russia is impossible.” Your author has heard this sentiment many times since then in focus groups.
Opposition-minded Russians, as well as those who believe that China poses a threat to Russia, are less enthusiastic. The pivot toward China is perceived as an important element of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy and therefore reflects people’s attitude toward the president himself. Similar dynamics are at play in relation to the US, which opposition-minded Russians treat much better than supporters of the government.
China and the US have mirrored each other in our polls, going in different directions in 2014-15 and 2022-24. Today, the likeability gap has reached 74 percentage points. The ongoing conflict with the West is a boon to China’s image in Russia. Yet this may also mean that as relations with the West normalize, the value of Russia-China relations and the overall attractiveness of China in the eyes of Russians will decline.
Asymmetry of Russia-China relations
Beneath the general positivity toward China, there are more contradictory feelings. In recent years, it has been rare to hear focus group participants characterize Russia and China as allies. More often, they see it as mutually beneficial cooperation where the sides use each other in calculated ways.
Respondents feel that the relationship is due to “our situation” – the conflict between Russia and the West, which has limited Moscow’s access to technology, investment and quality goods. Russians now expect all this to come from China. They see their southeastern neighbor as a savior: “China is like air for us now”; “they are our magic wand”; “we are not alone against the US, we have China’s help.” The very fact of cooperation with China (as well as rivalry with the other superpower, the US) boosts respondents’ sense of Russia’s importance.
Still, many perceive current Russia-China relations as asymmetrical, more beneficial to China, which is said to be using Russia as a “raw material appendage” and a market for its goods: “we give them resources, fossil fuels, timber, and they flood us with cheap goods, they do not really want to share technologies”; “they take raw materials at a big discount, almost for nothing”; “they are milking us like a cow.”
Probably the only area where Russia seems stronger than China to our interlocutors is military technology and capabilities: “it is advantageous for China to be friends with Russia, we cover them (in their confrontation with the US)”; “the Chinese do not know how to fight”; “sure, China is developing, but it has never had the spirit to fight.”
Fears about China
When asked whether China poses a threat to Russia, only one in five respondents answered in the affirmative, with the majority (72%) not worried. Like people’s attitude toward China in general, responses to this question were ideologically driven – those who do not approve of what the Russian leadership is doing and believe that Russia is going down the wrong path see China as a threat twice as often. In this regard, there are no serious geographical differences across the country – Moscow is no different than the Far East.
The main fears are China’s potentially seizing Russian territory, economic dependence on Beijing, a potential military conflict, general mistrust of people from other cultures and that there are simply too many Chinese.
Opposition-minded Russians, as well as those who believe that China poses a threat to Russia, are less enthusiastic. The pivot toward China is perceived as an important element of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy and therefore reflects people’s attitude toward the president himself. Similar dynamics are at play in relation to the US, which opposition-minded Russians treat much better than supporters of the government.
China and the US have mirrored each other in our polls, going in different directions in 2014-15 and 2022-24. Today, the likeability gap has reached 74 percentage points. The ongoing conflict with the West is a boon to China’s image in Russia. Yet this may also mean that as relations with the West normalize, the value of Russia-China relations and the overall attractiveness of China in the eyes of Russians will decline.
Asymmetry of Russia-China relations
Beneath the general positivity toward China, there are more contradictory feelings. In recent years, it has been rare to hear focus group participants characterize Russia and China as allies. More often, they see it as mutually beneficial cooperation where the sides use each other in calculated ways.
Respondents feel that the relationship is due to “our situation” – the conflict between Russia and the West, which has limited Moscow’s access to technology, investment and quality goods. Russians now expect all this to come from China. They see their southeastern neighbor as a savior: “China is like air for us now”; “they are our magic wand”; “we are not alone against the US, we have China’s help.” The very fact of cooperation with China (as well as rivalry with the other superpower, the US) boosts respondents’ sense of Russia’s importance.
Still, many perceive current Russia-China relations as asymmetrical, more beneficial to China, which is said to be using Russia as a “raw material appendage” and a market for its goods: “we give them resources, fossil fuels, timber, and they flood us with cheap goods, they do not really want to share technologies”; “they take raw materials at a big discount, almost for nothing”; “they are milking us like a cow.”
Probably the only area where Russia seems stronger than China to our interlocutors is military technology and capabilities: “it is advantageous for China to be friends with Russia, we cover them (in their confrontation with the US)”; “the Chinese do not know how to fight”; “sure, China is developing, but it has never had the spirit to fight.”
Fears about China
When asked whether China poses a threat to Russia, only one in five respondents answered in the affirmative, with the majority (72%) not worried. Like people’s attitude toward China in general, responses to this question were ideologically driven – those who do not approve of what the Russian leadership is doing and believe that Russia is going down the wrong path see China as a threat twice as often. In this regard, there are no serious geographical differences across the country – Moscow is no different than the Far East.
The main fears are China’s potentially seizing Russian territory, economic dependence on Beijing, a potential military conflict, general mistrust of people from other cultures and that there are simply too many Chinese.
“Respondents are concerned about the long border with the densely populated country, which in many ways seems stronger than Russia.”
A monument to Damansky Island, where armed clashes between the USSR and China took place in 1969. Dalnerechensk, Primorsky Region. Source: Wiki Commons
Especially since the history of relations between the two countries includes armed conflicts, with the Damansky Island clashes being the most cited.
Many of our interlocutors said that China is overpopulated, while Russia, on the contrary, is rich in natural resources and fertile land but sparsely populated. Against this backdrop, Siberia and the Far East might appear as “tasty morsels” that the Chinese might want to “bite off.” In addition, part of that territory once belonged to China. For respondents who fear Chinese expansion, Chinese tourism in Russia could be reconnaissance ahead of future moves.
Nevertheless, a direct military clash between the two countries is rarely discussed. It seems possible, to respondents, only if Russia “ceases to be sovereign” or is unable to revive domestic industry, or if China has problems at home that it wants to solve at Russia’s expense: “as long as their bellies are full, they will not attack us.” Some doubt the possibility of a conflict on the grounds that Russia is already giving the Chinese everything they ask for on the cheap: “they do not need Siberia, the Russians are already giving it away practically”; “they are getting everything from us anyways.”
If Russia fails to develop its own production and technology and restore relations with Western countries, then – according to respondents – there is a risk that it will “become a vassal of China,” after which Beijing would be able to “dictate its terms to us” and “pull the plug any time, as the US and Europe did.”
The possibility of a rapprochement between China and the West seems like a nightmare scenario, as it would put Russia in a hopeless situation of real isolation. Some skeptics worry that China could “change its tune anytime” and “go over to the US.” However, as more informed respondents point out, as long as China has disagreements with the US over Taiwan, a change in the “vector” of Chinese foreign policy will not occur: “nothing brings people together like a common enemy.”
A pivot to the East?
Contemporary China, with its skyscrapers, factories, cars and high-tech goods, has obscured the country’s ancient history in the imagination of the average Russian. Those living in Russia’s Far East today travel to China with the same feeling with which their compatriots in the European part of Russia travel to Europe – that they are going to a richer and more developed place. Yet our analysis shows that the image of China in Russian public opinion is only partly determined by the changes that have taken place in China itself.
The perception of China is influenced no less by events taking place inside Russia. Moscow’s touted pivot to the East, which accelerated after 2014 and the introduction of the first Western sanctions, has cemented the perception that China is a friendly country helping Russia to overcome international isolation.
Pro-China sentiment is at all-time highs. At the same time, a souring view of the US is giving a direct boost to that of China, which appears in the public consciousness as the anti-US, a counterweight to US influence.
The rapprochement between Russia and China is spurring interest in travel and business contacts. However, the current alliance is perceived by many Russians as forced, imposed by external circumstances (the conflict with the West) and more beneficial for China than for Russia. This often causes discomfort and worries about the consequences of excessive dependence on Russia’s stronger and richer neighbor. Against this backdrop, a normalization of relations with the US and Europe could be a welcome scenario to balance China’s influence.
Many of our interlocutors said that China is overpopulated, while Russia, on the contrary, is rich in natural resources and fertile land but sparsely populated. Against this backdrop, Siberia and the Far East might appear as “tasty morsels” that the Chinese might want to “bite off.” In addition, part of that territory once belonged to China. For respondents who fear Chinese expansion, Chinese tourism in Russia could be reconnaissance ahead of future moves.
Nevertheless, a direct military clash between the two countries is rarely discussed. It seems possible, to respondents, only if Russia “ceases to be sovereign” or is unable to revive domestic industry, or if China has problems at home that it wants to solve at Russia’s expense: “as long as their bellies are full, they will not attack us.” Some doubt the possibility of a conflict on the grounds that Russia is already giving the Chinese everything they ask for on the cheap: “they do not need Siberia, the Russians are already giving it away practically”; “they are getting everything from us anyways.”
If Russia fails to develop its own production and technology and restore relations with Western countries, then – according to respondents – there is a risk that it will “become a vassal of China,” after which Beijing would be able to “dictate its terms to us” and “pull the plug any time, as the US and Europe did.”
The possibility of a rapprochement between China and the West seems like a nightmare scenario, as it would put Russia in a hopeless situation of real isolation. Some skeptics worry that China could “change its tune anytime” and “go over to the US.” However, as more informed respondents point out, as long as China has disagreements with the US over Taiwan, a change in the “vector” of Chinese foreign policy will not occur: “nothing brings people together like a common enemy.”
A pivot to the East?
Contemporary China, with its skyscrapers, factories, cars and high-tech goods, has obscured the country’s ancient history in the imagination of the average Russian. Those living in Russia’s Far East today travel to China with the same feeling with which their compatriots in the European part of Russia travel to Europe – that they are going to a richer and more developed place. Yet our analysis shows that the image of China in Russian public opinion is only partly determined by the changes that have taken place in China itself.
The perception of China is influenced no less by events taking place inside Russia. Moscow’s touted pivot to the East, which accelerated after 2014 and the introduction of the first Western sanctions, has cemented the perception that China is a friendly country helping Russia to overcome international isolation.
Pro-China sentiment is at all-time highs. At the same time, a souring view of the US is giving a direct boost to that of China, which appears in the public consciousness as the anti-US, a counterweight to US influence.
The rapprochement between Russia and China is spurring interest in travel and business contacts. However, the current alliance is perceived by many Russians as forced, imposed by external circumstances (the conflict with the West) and more beneficial for China than for Russia. This often causes discomfort and worries about the consequences of excessive dependence on Russia’s stronger and richer neighbor. Against this backdrop, a normalization of relations with the US and Europe could be a welcome scenario to balance China’s influence.
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