Since January 1, Russian gas no longer flows to Europe through Ukraine – Kyiv decided not to renew its contract with Moscow, which expired on December 31, 2024.

Slovakia has complained the loudest about potential problems, but it is Transnistria that has been impacted the most so far. The economy of the unrecognized “republic,” as well as its population’s livelihoods, was built on Russian gas, which it received practically for free.

During the New Year holidays, the Transnistrian leadership provided updates on firewood chopped for the population and cursed Moldova, whose government was supposedly to blame for the crisis.

Now, in mid-January, the remaining gas in the pipeline system is running out, while Transnistrian industry is getting back to work.

The first weeks with no gas

“In Transnistria, there is no sense of impending or already happening collapse, as only two weeks have passed [since the gas was cut off],” says journalist Galiya Ibragimova. She moved from Russia to Moldova after Russia invaded Ukraine and recently visited Transnistria.

“The most noticeable thing is that there is no heating and it is cold in the rooms. There is electricity, though there were days when the electricity was turned off for four hours in the morning and four hours in the evening. But even then, thanks to the schedule, people have managed to adapt. Since there is a single power grid in Transnistria, they have started allocating electricity between districts, and in recent days the electricity has been turned off for only five hours [a day]. For now, there is gas in the stoves for cooking (due to the remaining gas in the pipelines – TR),” she says.

In the first days after the gas was turned off, temperatures in Transnistria reached minus 10 Celsius. Now, the weather is warm, meaning the challenges are less acute: small apartments can be heated with air conditioners and electric heaters, turned on when there is electricity. Meanwhile, private houses, of which there are many in the center of Tiraspol, the capital, have their own wood- and coal-powered heating.

Among industrial firms, those that are vital to the population’s survival are operating: for example, bread factories and other food production plants. Heavy industry, like metallurgical factories, is at a standstill, however. “They are suggesting that firms work at night, when people are sleeping and not using electricity. Setting up nighttime nurseries for workers at such firms has even been put forward,” says Ibragimova.

‘Things will get sorted out’

Many outside observers believe that Transnistria now has no other way but to return to Moldova’s embrace. Apparently, this is also the view in Moldova itself. However, as Ibragimova notes, in Transnistria there is no sense of readiness to unite with anyone.

“People are putting on a brave face and believe that everything will be fine,” says Ibragimova. “What their faith is based on is unclear. Of course, when you are outside of Transnistria, the situation seems more dramatic, but here people, in my view, are still living in some kind of myth.”

For example, they believe that everything will be fine from January 20. Because school holidays were extended until January 20, people have it in their minds that the authorities know something and that everything will be fine starting then.

Ibragimova notes that Transnistrians do not blame Russia, Ukraine or Moldova for the gas stoppage – only the leadership of the latter. They claim that the government of Moldovan President Maia Sandu is stirring up trouble for political gains.

“Of course, we cannot underestimate the local propaganda that instills this idea, but, on the other hand, there are [TV] channels available in Transnistria available besides local and Russian ones. In addition, almost all residents of Transnistria have not only Russian but also Moldovan passports; they travel to Moldova to visit relatives and to Europe. But even the most informed and critically thinking Transnistrians, i.e., who understand that Russia is to blame for the current situation, are afraid to admit that Russia has screwed them,” Ibragimova believes.

That is why myths have emerged: supposedly, even if Russia is to blame, it is because someone wants to cause a quarrel [between Tiraspol and Moscow]. Who wants this, of course, goes unspoken. At the same time, local TV exclusively uses expressions like “the crisis created by Moldova,” “the Moldova-provoked the energy crisis” and so on.

“The grandmothers at the market are even more radical. They shout: ‘even if Moldova wants to help us, we do not need their help,’” says Ibragimova. Nevertheless, she notes there is no such hostility between Transnistria and Moldova as, say, between Georgia and Abkhazia, another breakaway state. “For example, people from Transnistria also go to the Varnitskaya hospital in Moldova; economic ties are strong. They speak respectfully of Ukraine and even more respectfully of Russia, [referring to it] exclusively as ‘the Russian Federation.’ But there is great resentment toward the Moldovan leadership and the Moldovan media. And now, having returned to Moldova from Transnistria, I myself have noticed a dismissive tone in the press toward Transnistria. By the way, there is not a single Moldovan TV channel in Transnistria, though there are many Ukrainian ones and, of course, Russian ones. Anything [deemed] undesirable is blocked [in Transnistria], yet in Moldova no one is trying to convey their opinion to the residents of Transnistria,” says Ibragimova.

Still no money

It is not just journalists who have pointed out the false hopes that Transnistria is living on – experts say that resolving the current crisis requires money that the Transnistrian authorities, because of the specifics of the local economy, do not have.

“They refuse to buy gas from Moldova because, firstly, they are hoping for a miracle and that some transit [gas] will suddenly get going again. For example, when the Russia-Azerbaijan spat subsides and Azerbaijani gas starts flowing to Transnistria through Ukraine.

“In addition, the Transnistrian leadership simply does not have the money to pay for gas at market prices,” argues political scientist Georgy Bovt. How they will get out of this crisis remains to be seen. “The easiest thing, of course, is to switch the Cuciurgan power plant (the largest in Moldova – RP), located in Transnistria, to coal – which, in fact, has already been done. But coal also needs to be bought – and it is unlikely to be bought anywhere else except Ukraine,” he notes.

Transnistria received a lot of Russian gas, one factor being that Cuciurgan is located there – with a capacity of 2.5 GW, it was built back in Soviet times to provide electricity to the entire southwestern region of the Soviet Union, as independent oil and gas expert Sergei Vakulenko explains.

“The entire economy of Transnistria was built on… receiving gas from Gazprom practically for free (the money for the supplied gas, according to the agreement with Gazprom, went toward the “social security” of Transnistrians – TR) and selling it to right-bank Moldova for ‘real’ money,” he says. As suggested above, the Cuciurgan power plant also has coal units, but Transnistria has to purchase the coal. At the same time, three fourths of Cuciurgan’s capacity was attributable to Moldova. Though Ukraine and Romania also have power lines that go to Cuciurgan, its electricity is expensive.

Importantly, Vakulenko refutes the widespread idea, including in Transnistria, that Moscow stopped supplying gas to Tiraspol because Chisinau refused to pay its debt – Gazprom has never demanded money from the right bank for gas supplied to the left bank.

“Gazprom has not tried to sue Moldova, apparently because it does not expect all its claims to be satisfied. It has proposed linking gas supplies to the settlement of its debt claims. Now, after the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, this is unlikely to happen,” he concludes.

What’s next?

The experts with whom I spoke have yet to venture to predict what will happen next. Transnistria is 100% gasified, and both Cuciurgan – which supplies power to industry and households – and public utilities run on gas. Still, every expert agrees that there is no reason to expect a resumption of Russian supplies. Where will Transnistria get its gas now, or what will it replace gas with?

“One area is utilities. If a boiler house runs on gas, nothing can be done about it. But this is a small share of the gas consumed [by Transnistria], and there is actually a gas pipeline that goes from Romania to Moldova; there is an electricity line that goes from Romania to Moldova – this capacity will probably be enough for Transnistria, if it can come to an agreement with Moldova,” Vakulenko believes.

Overall, he says, Transnistria can buy gas in Romania and/or Bulgaria and pump it through Ukrainian territory – and this should be enough to meet the needs of utilities. “But this gas will be dozens of times more expensive than usual prices. The same coal for the [Cuciurgan] power plant also needs to be bought somewhere and brought in, perhaps, by barges from the Romanian port of Constanta, since the coal in Ukraine is not thermal coal, but coking coal,” Vakulenko adds.

The Transnistrian leadership has another two months to resolve the crisis, Bovt believes. “And then spring will begin, [and] gas will no longer be needed for heating from April. Or maybe the Transnistrian leadership is hoping for another miracle: Russian troops have only 130 kilometers left to go through Ukrainian territory to reach the Ukraine-Moldova border,” the political scientist muses.

The unrecognized Transnistria is, in fact, bankrupt, explains Vakulenko. In addition, its business and industry are rather specific: “for example, that power plant is state-owned, as is the metallurgical plant in Rybnitsa. And there is also the concern called Sheriff, completely intertwined with the state, which owns a textile plant in Tiraspol, a wine and cognac factory and other rather large firms in the ‘republic.’ This is Belarus-type state capitalism [and is] of no particular interest to anyone,” he says.

Transnistria is not interesting even for Gazprom: while transit gas to Europe flowed, the incremental costs of supplying Transnistria (it needed two billion cubic meters per year) were insignificant – Gazprom actually lost only $30 on every 1,000 cubic meters of gas pumped through Ukraine, according to Vakulenko’s calculations.

Thus, supporting Transnistria was very cheap for Moscow. From a purely technical standpoint, Gazprom can currently redirect gas to Transnistria via Romania and Bulgaria from the Turkish Stream pipeline. Yet it is one thing to give Transnistria small volumes of gas almost for free; it is quite another to pay for the transportation of these volumes, especially in conditions where Gazprom has already lost much of its European export flow. “This is no longer attractive for Gazprom,” says Vakulenko.

How Transnistrians will react when a miracle fails to come and the gas crisis continues after January 20 remains to be seen. “For now, people say: ‘we survived the 1991 war (referring to the conflict that resulted in Transnistria breaking away from Moldova – TR), we survived the 2008 crisis and we survived Covid – and we will survive this,’” Ibragimova reports.

Overall, the following picture emerges. On the one hand, there is Transnistria, an unrecognized, breakaway state with many specific features, including “corporate capitalism” and even mafia parasitism. Its independence has been based on Russian guns and its well-being on practically free Russian gas, with Tiraspol still confident that “Russia will not abandon us.” On the other hand, Moldova believes that time is on its side, and Transnistria, like the prodigal son, will return and repent.

For the Kremlin, the issue of Transnistrian gas is likely to be a boon as another area of its “hybrid war” against the West and an opportunity to destabilize the internal situation in Moldova. As for Gazprom, it is clearly unwilling to switch from gifting gas to Transnistria, which cost it almost nothing, to supplying it at serious expense. Meanwhile, Ukraine and the EU have bigger problems right now than Transnistria.

The consequences of the energy crisis in Transnistria will come to light very soon – there is only enough gas left in the Transnistrian pipeline system for several weeks.