ECONOMY
Head of AmCham Russia:
‘Firstly, a Peace Agreement Needs to Be Concluded’ for US Companies to Come Back
‘Firstly, a Peace Agreement Needs to Be Concluded’ for US Companies to Come Back
March 10, 2025
- Robert AgeePresident of AmCham Russia
Robert Agee, head of AmCham Russia, recently gave in an interview to RBC in which he discusses doing business in Russia amid Western sanctions and Russian restrictions and shares his thoughts on the outlook for companies that hastily exited Russia after the start of the war.
The original interview in Russian was published in RBC. We are republishing it with small cuts and with their permission.
Robert Agee, president of AmCham Russia. Source: RBC
How would you characterize the current state of US business in Russia?
I will start by saying that AmCham Russia and all our companies welcome the initiative of presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to start a dialogue, which has been absent for three years. It started in Saudi Arabia and continued in Istanbul. Discussion has started between the countries, and we, the business community, are happy about that.
According to our data, about 150 wholly US companies currently operate in Russia. About another 150 left. Another 50 formerly US companies are now Russian-owned.
Among, as you put it, wholly US companies that continue to operate in Russia, how have their operations changed?
All US companies, unfortunately, have stopped investing – this is a requirement of US legislation. They can do, for example, maintenance at their facilities, but making investments is prohibited. Still, most [US firms] operate quite successfully. Of course, they suffer from the same problems as other companies: payments, logistics, labor shortages, US and EU sanctions...
With the beginning of the public dialogue between the countries, has there been a change in mood? Are you getting more calls?
The feeling of optimism is now stronger than three months ago. That’s for sure.
Are you being asked to organize new or further meetings with Russian officials?
Despite the ongoing events, none of our committees at AmCham Russia stopped working. Last year alone, we held more than 200 meetings with companies; we discussed their problems and organized meetings with Russian government bodies to resolve them.
I want to say that for the last three years, we have maintained good relations with Russian ministries and agencies. They have received us politely, communicated with us; we have resolved many issues together; everything has been very professional. We say: “the chamber is a ‘friendly’ organization from an ‘unfriendly’ country.”
Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, has estimated the losses of US business from exiting the Russian market at $300 billion. How close is that to your estimates?
I have not seen the details of what is included [in that figure]. I think when you combine direct losses and lost profit, losses of market share, fire sales of businesses, and increased costs of doing business (logistics, payments, changes in supply chains), the numbers match.
Have you estimated how much money belonging to US companies or investors is frozen in Type S custody accounts (special, restricted accounts used for transactions with nonresidents amid the financial sanctions and currency controls in Russia – RP)?
Based on what we have heard in public sources, the amount of frozen money is approximately the same as that in US and European accounts – about $300 billion. But this is only speculation; no one has provided exact data.
What sanctions, in your view, should be lifted first?
Currently, we are preparing a white paper for the US government, which I hope to present in the US. It is an analysis that has been carried out for many months on what problems US companies have faced in the last three years and which sanctions have caused the most harm.
I will start by saying that AmCham Russia and all our companies welcome the initiative of presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to start a dialogue, which has been absent for three years. It started in Saudi Arabia and continued in Istanbul. Discussion has started between the countries, and we, the business community, are happy about that.
According to our data, about 150 wholly US companies currently operate in Russia. About another 150 left. Another 50 formerly US companies are now Russian-owned.
Among, as you put it, wholly US companies that continue to operate in Russia, how have their operations changed?
All US companies, unfortunately, have stopped investing – this is a requirement of US legislation. They can do, for example, maintenance at their facilities, but making investments is prohibited. Still, most [US firms] operate quite successfully. Of course, they suffer from the same problems as other companies: payments, logistics, labor shortages, US and EU sanctions...
With the beginning of the public dialogue between the countries, has there been a change in mood? Are you getting more calls?
The feeling of optimism is now stronger than three months ago. That’s for sure.
Are you being asked to organize new or further meetings with Russian officials?
Despite the ongoing events, none of our committees at AmCham Russia stopped working. Last year alone, we held more than 200 meetings with companies; we discussed their problems and organized meetings with Russian government bodies to resolve them.
I want to say that for the last three years, we have maintained good relations with Russian ministries and agencies. They have received us politely, communicated with us; we have resolved many issues together; everything has been very professional. We say: “the chamber is a ‘friendly’ organization from an ‘unfriendly’ country.”
Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, has estimated the losses of US business from exiting the Russian market at $300 billion. How close is that to your estimates?
I have not seen the details of what is included [in that figure]. I think when you combine direct losses and lost profit, losses of market share, fire sales of businesses, and increased costs of doing business (logistics, payments, changes in supply chains), the numbers match.
Have you estimated how much money belonging to US companies or investors is frozen in Type S custody accounts (special, restricted accounts used for transactions with nonresidents amid the financial sanctions and currency controls in Russia – RP)?
Based on what we have heard in public sources, the amount of frozen money is approximately the same as that in US and European accounts – about $300 billion. But this is only speculation; no one has provided exact data.
What sanctions, in your view, should be lifted first?
Currently, we are preparing a white paper for the US government, which I hope to present in the US. It is an analysis that has been carried out for many months on what problems US companies have faced in the last three years and which sanctions have caused the most harm.
“First of all, we call for lifting sanctions in the aviation sector – this includes the supply of spare parts and technical support for aircraft.”
This is to a lesser extent a business wish and more a humanitarian necessity, as ordinary people suffer most from it.
On “aviation safety” we have teamed up with the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which also considers it important (as everyone probably does). Together, we have launched the Two Continents Initiative, and we are working on a joint position on this issue.
The second piece of the proposals is lifting the investment ban for US companies. Many firms are ready to expand, to invest in the expansion of production in Russia, but this ban limits them very much.
The third piece concerns removing sanctions on Russian banks to enable cross-border payments, without which we all suffer. This will immediately reduce the cost of doing business for both US and Russian companies and others. Due to the current restrictions, the cost of doing business has gone up several fold.
The fourth is removing restrictions on luxury items, including cosmetics. This is a strange measure, which banned imports of US cosmetics to Russia and led to the loss of market share in this segment for many companies.
This is not a complete list of our proposals, just the biggest priorities.
Do you think reestablishing a single payments space is possible? For instance, Russian banks rejoining SWIFT?
Yes, we believe this would be good for the economy and the business of our companies. Though, of course, it will not happen overnight.
Were there any cases in recent years when US companies were able to withdraw dividends?
Yes, there are some examples, though they are limited, and I would like to see more. To do that, [companies] need to fulfill several conditions of the Russian government’s commission on foreign investment.
Was there a haircut?
No, these were “clean” dividends. But again, getting the necessary permission is not so simple. We recently had a good meeting with the Ministry of Finance – they are ready to listen and hear our requests on this issue.
How is your dialogue with the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) currently?
I will tell you about my personal dialogue with them after my trip [to the US] in April.
What about AmCham Russia members’ interaction with OFAC? Do they often need to get licenses from OFAC?
Regularly.
On “aviation safety” we have teamed up with the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which also considers it important (as everyone probably does). Together, we have launched the Two Continents Initiative, and we are working on a joint position on this issue.
The second piece of the proposals is lifting the investment ban for US companies. Many firms are ready to expand, to invest in the expansion of production in Russia, but this ban limits them very much.
The third piece concerns removing sanctions on Russian banks to enable cross-border payments, without which we all suffer. This will immediately reduce the cost of doing business for both US and Russian companies and others. Due to the current restrictions, the cost of doing business has gone up several fold.
The fourth is removing restrictions on luxury items, including cosmetics. This is a strange measure, which banned imports of US cosmetics to Russia and led to the loss of market share in this segment for many companies.
This is not a complete list of our proposals, just the biggest priorities.
Do you think reestablishing a single payments space is possible? For instance, Russian banks rejoining SWIFT?
Yes, we believe this would be good for the economy and the business of our companies. Though, of course, it will not happen overnight.
Were there any cases in recent years when US companies were able to withdraw dividends?
Yes, there are some examples, though they are limited, and I would like to see more. To do that, [companies] need to fulfill several conditions of the Russian government’s commission on foreign investment.
Was there a haircut?
No, these were “clean” dividends. But again, getting the necessary permission is not so simple. We recently had a good meeting with the Ministry of Finance – they are ready to listen and hear our requests on this issue.
How is your dialogue with the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) currently?
I will tell you about my personal dialogue with them after my trip [to the US] in April.
What about AmCham Russia members’ interaction with OFAC? Do they often need to get licenses from OFAC?
Regularly.
“Last year, we managed to lobby the US government to cancel permits for the supply of medical equipment to Russia.”
Vkusno i tochka ("Tasty, period") is a Russian fast food chain based mostly in former McDonald's restaurants and serving rebranded McDonald's items. McDonald's pulled out of Russia after the war started. The first Vkusno i tochka restaurants were opened on June 12, 2022. Source: VK
But you still need to get licenses for certain medical equipment and pharmaceuticals that are actually considered dual-use products. We are calling for these restrictions to be lifted, too, as this is a human health issue and thus a humanitarian issue.
Let’s assume the situation stabilizes and the number of restrictions decreases. How actively will US companies start coming back to Russia? Will Coca-Cola and McDonald’s return?
There are several categories of companies and scenarios for them coming back. The first category is fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms that have an option to buy back their businesses. They can come and start operations immediately. They represent 10-20% of the total number of companies that exited. It is mainly companies that halted operations in the first year [of the war] and took options on their businesses in Russia for up to five years.
Do you think they will exercise these options?
I think, firstly, a peace agreement needs to be concluded. After one is signed, the companies that have buyback options will think very carefully about how to [go about returning].
The second category is companies that “left but did not leave.” They retained offices here – you can see them in many business centers. There may be only five people, but they have an office, a license – everything is there. This category includes firms that retained production sites here and continue to pay salaries to the workers at these plants. It is much easier for them to come back and start working than for companies that totally exited.
But for companies that sold off all their assets, [where] there were emotions, returning will be hard. Everything will depend on the situation. I cannot say that there is already a huge line of people waiting to come back. Some companies are interested, reach out, [their] lawyers call, stay on top of everything.
Let’s assume the situation stabilizes and the number of restrictions decreases. How actively will US companies start coming back to Russia? Will Coca-Cola and McDonald’s return?
There are several categories of companies and scenarios for them coming back. The first category is fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms that have an option to buy back their businesses. They can come and start operations immediately. They represent 10-20% of the total number of companies that exited. It is mainly companies that halted operations in the first year [of the war] and took options on their businesses in Russia for up to five years.
Do you think they will exercise these options?
I think, firstly, a peace agreement needs to be concluded. After one is signed, the companies that have buyback options will think very carefully about how to [go about returning].
The second category is companies that “left but did not leave.” They retained offices here – you can see them in many business centers. There may be only five people, but they have an office, a license – everything is there. This category includes firms that retained production sites here and continue to pay salaries to the workers at these plants. It is much easier for them to come back and start working than for companies that totally exited.
But for companies that sold off all their assets, [where] there were emotions, returning will be hard. Everything will depend on the situation. I cannot say that there is already a huge line of people waiting to come back. Some companies are interested, reach out, [their] lawyers call, stay on top of everything.
“My forecast is that this year, maybe only a few companies will restart operations.”
Is that a lot?
A couple, four or five. I think that these will be FMCG companies, if there is space for them in the market.
Do you think there is room for US companies left in the Russian market?
I think so. But the situation in each segment will be different. It will be easier for some companies; it will be harder for those that exited on “bad terms.” It will be especially challenging for business-to-government companies that participated in public procurement or operated in the high-tech space.
How much has the Russian economy changed over these years in terms of, for example, import substitution?
According to our latest Pulse Survey from January, 35% of [company executives participating in the survey] said the degree of import substitution had increased by 90% compared to 2021, and another 35% said by 50%. Unfortunately, it was not possible to switch to local suppliers in all sectors, so companies switched to suppliers from third countries, replacing US goods with those from China, India, Turkey and others. Compared to 2021, 32% of survey participants noted a 100% transition to suppliers from third countries.
A couple, four or five. I think that these will be FMCG companies, if there is space for them in the market.
Do you think there is room for US companies left in the Russian market?
I think so. But the situation in each segment will be different. It will be easier for some companies; it will be harder for those that exited on “bad terms.” It will be especially challenging for business-to-government companies that participated in public procurement or operated in the high-tech space.
How much has the Russian economy changed over these years in terms of, for example, import substitution?
According to our latest Pulse Survey from January, 35% of [company executives participating in the survey] said the degree of import substitution had increased by 90% compared to 2021, and another 35% said by 50%. Unfortunately, it was not possible to switch to local suppliers in all sectors, so companies switched to suppliers from third countries, replacing US goods with those from China, India, Turkey and others. Compared to 2021, 32% of survey participants noted a 100% transition to suppliers from third countries.
The automotive plant Moskvich (formerly Renault Russia). In July 2022, after Renault announced it was leaving Russia, the KAMAZ and the Moscow city government agreed on an even split of the capital in the Moskvich plant. Source: Wiki Commons
Now, US companies will face competition from Chinese suppliers. Will the Russian market become a battleground between the US and China?
We (the US) created this problem ourselves. It is always harder to get back what you have lost than to lose it. This is just a commercial fact anywhere. And, of course, China captured a piece. In the automobile industry, it already has a 70% share.
The question now is how Western companies can get their share back. All dealers, all the partners in Russia have already switched their engineers and equipment over to maintaining Chinese cars. How ready, even from a legal standpoint, are they to take BMW, Mercedes, Chevrolet again? I think eventually it will be possible, as everyone wants to see these cars here, but I cannot say how easy it will be.
In this context, how easy will the return of Western aviation be, given state support for the Russian aviation industry?
I would say there is space for both. Russia has a huge fleet of Western planes, mostly Boeings. We believe we should provide spare parts and technical support for them, so we will try to have these sanctions lifted.
Against the backdrop of unfriendly rhetoric in both directions, your survey of expats about their perception of comfort and safety in Russia shows very high numbers How is that possible?
Yes, they are very comfortable.
We (the US) created this problem ourselves. It is always harder to get back what you have lost than to lose it. This is just a commercial fact anywhere. And, of course, China captured a piece. In the automobile industry, it already has a 70% share.
The question now is how Western companies can get their share back. All dealers, all the partners in Russia have already switched their engineers and equipment over to maintaining Chinese cars. How ready, even from a legal standpoint, are they to take BMW, Mercedes, Chevrolet again? I think eventually it will be possible, as everyone wants to see these cars here, but I cannot say how easy it will be.
In this context, how easy will the return of Western aviation be, given state support for the Russian aviation industry?
I would say there is space for both. Russia has a huge fleet of Western planes, mostly Boeings. We believe we should provide spare parts and technical support for them, so we will try to have these sanctions lifted.
Against the backdrop of unfriendly rhetoric in both directions, your survey of expats about their perception of comfort and safety in Russia shows very high numbers How is that possible?
Yes, they are very comfortable.
“I have been saying for a long time that Moscow is probably the safest big city in the world. But many people in the West do not know this, as the information in the Western mass media is completely different.”
I have lived here for 30 years; I take the train every day, the metro, I have no problems, I feel fine.
Currently, the Russian government is discussing a bill that envisages confiscation of foreign assets, including private assets, in response to the freezing of Russia’s sovereign reserves. Have you analyzed this initiative?
We are studying the issue, keeping track of it. For now, it is only a bill. We understand this is a response to the US REPO for Ukrainians Act (Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act), which allows for the confiscation of Russian sovereign reserves. Of course, such initiatives scare investors.
Unfortunately, the current global situation is unique in that business is maximally entangled in it (sanctions, exiting the country, etc.). I think the goal now is to convince US companies that there are a lot of projects in Russia and there are good opportunities to invest and make money.
Currently, the Russian government is discussing a bill that envisages confiscation of foreign assets, including private assets, in response to the freezing of Russia’s sovereign reserves. Have you analyzed this initiative?
We are studying the issue, keeping track of it. For now, it is only a bill. We understand this is a response to the US REPO for Ukrainians Act (Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act), which allows for the confiscation of Russian sovereign reserves. Of course, such initiatives scare investors.
Unfortunately, the current global situation is unique in that business is maximally entangled in it (sanctions, exiting the country, etc.). I think the goal now is to convince US companies that there are a lot of projects in Russia and there are good opportunities to invest and make money.
The Boeing 737 is the best-selling commercial jet in history. Source: Wiki Commons
In what areas has Russian business been unable to replace US imports?
We have not seen a “Russian Boeing” yet. I understand there is Sukhoi and that it is trying to fill the gap, but Boeing is Boeing. Who knows how much time and effort will be needed to replace [Boeing].
Or another example: Cisco Systems. Millions of pages of code and 20-30 years of operations here. It is not so easy to replace it, though many companies are working on that with some success. The Chinese can make a good copy of anything, but even they have problems with [copying Cisco].
Do you fear that the trust previously enjoyed by US brands and companies will prove unrecoverable?
I think the question of trust is mutual. There is a feeling of resentment on the part of companies that left and sold their businesses at a 90% discount and on the part of their Russian clients, who were forced to urgently look for replacements.
I think the only way to overcome resentment is time. Time and, for example, social projects and, for example, sports and cultural events.
Will US companies come to the St Petersburg Economic Forum this summer?
It all depends on whether there is a peace agreement or not.
We have not seen a “Russian Boeing” yet. I understand there is Sukhoi and that it is trying to fill the gap, but Boeing is Boeing. Who knows how much time and effort will be needed to replace [Boeing].
Or another example: Cisco Systems. Millions of pages of code and 20-30 years of operations here. It is not so easy to replace it, though many companies are working on that with some success. The Chinese can make a good copy of anything, but even they have problems with [copying Cisco].
Do you fear that the trust previously enjoyed by US brands and companies will prove unrecoverable?
I think the question of trust is mutual. There is a feeling of resentment on the part of companies that left and sold their businesses at a 90% discount and on the part of their Russian clients, who were forced to urgently look for replacements.
I think the only way to overcome resentment is time. Time and, for example, social projects and, for example, sports and cultural events.
Will US companies come to the St Petersburg Economic Forum this summer?
It all depends on whether there is a peace agreement or not.
“If there is a peace agreement, say, in April, as announced by President Trump, then we may really see several US companies in June.”
If relations are normalized, do you expect Russian authorities to make it harder for companies to leave the country again in the event of another crisis?
Many companies have concerns: either around security or around the protection of their investments. But each company will make its own decision as to how things will work.
What, in your view, needs to happen now to alleviate US investors’ fears?
Countersanctions need to be lifted and the regime for dividend payments restored. All this can be part of negotiations on future relations. Most likely, this will be in the form of individual agreements, SPICs [special investment contracts] or similar mechanisms. We at AmCham Russia see our role in this as creating understanding between the parties and [helping them to] realize projects that are win-win for everyone.
The most important thing is that there should be dialogue, there should be communication. There has been a lot of “Russophobia” in the media; a lot has been written that everything is bad in Russia. This image scares people. Business does not like surprises, business likes stability, where it knows there is no threat to businessmen who work here.
We will try to convince them that there are good opportunities here. But again, it will take some time. It will not be like you open the door and there are thousands of companies waiting to get in. At first, it will be a few companies, then slowly, more and more.
Do you think US companies made a mistake by pulling out of the Russian market abruptly?
I always tried to persuade companies not to do this. It would have been better to keep a small office, keep some people.
What were your arguments?
You will lose the market. The market will not die because you exit. It means someone will take your place.
Many companies have concerns: either around security or around the protection of their investments. But each company will make its own decision as to how things will work.
What, in your view, needs to happen now to alleviate US investors’ fears?
Countersanctions need to be lifted and the regime for dividend payments restored. All this can be part of negotiations on future relations. Most likely, this will be in the form of individual agreements, SPICs [special investment contracts] or similar mechanisms. We at AmCham Russia see our role in this as creating understanding between the parties and [helping them to] realize projects that are win-win for everyone.
The most important thing is that there should be dialogue, there should be communication. There has been a lot of “Russophobia” in the media; a lot has been written that everything is bad in Russia. This image scares people. Business does not like surprises, business likes stability, where it knows there is no threat to businessmen who work here.
We will try to convince them that there are good opportunities here. But again, it will take some time. It will not be like you open the door and there are thousands of companies waiting to get in. At first, it will be a few companies, then slowly, more and more.
Do you think US companies made a mistake by pulling out of the Russian market abruptly?
I always tried to persuade companies not to do this. It would have been better to keep a small office, keep some people.
What were your arguments?
You will lose the market. The market will not die because you exit. It means someone will take your place.
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