Society
How the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk might impact Russians’ attitudes toward the war and the government
August 16, 2024
Elena Koneva
Sociologist, ExtremeScan founder and researcher, Chronicles project partner, WAPOR national representative in Russia
Based on sociological research that ExtremeScan conducted in the border region of Belgorod starting in March 2023, sociologist Elena Koneva shares her thoughts about how the Ukrainian incursion into neighboring Kursk Region will affect locals. As a July 2024 survey shows, most Belgorod residents have felt the reality of living next to the frontline.
When Belgorod Region residents were asked what had happened in recent months in their city/area or to them personally, this is how the breakdown of responses looked: destruction of residential, commercial, administrative buildings, infrastructure (62%); sabotage operations by Ukraine (31%); shelling, drone attacks (78%); injury or death of civilians (62%). Only 5% said none of these.
Since the beginning of what the Russian government calls the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the situation in Belgorod Region has steadily deteriorated. Initially, Belgorod residents left their houses and moved to less vulnerable areas inside the region, but currently 70% of those who left their homes have left the region.
In July, ExtremeScan conducted a survey of mobile phone numbers connected to Belgorod Region: about 10% of respondents were outside the region, with 27% leaving before 2022 and 70% in 2022-24. Digging deeper, we see that the same number left in the first six months of 2024 as in 2022 and 2023 combined. Apparently, the outflow reflects the intensity of the conflict.
The Ukrainian army’s incursion into Kursk Region will likely become another reason to leave for Belgorod Region residents who had been considering it before. The flow of refugees has already picked up.
Since the beginning of what the Russian government calls the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the situation in Belgorod Region has steadily deteriorated. Initially, Belgorod residents left their houses and moved to less vulnerable areas inside the region, but currently 70% of those who left their homes have left the region.
In July, ExtremeScan conducted a survey of mobile phone numbers connected to Belgorod Region: about 10% of respondents were outside the region, with 27% leaving before 2022 and 70% in 2022-24. Digging deeper, we see that the same number left in the first six months of 2024 as in 2022 and 2023 combined. Apparently, the outflow reflects the intensity of the conflict.
The Ukrainian army’s incursion into Kursk Region will likely become another reason to leave for Belgorod Region residents who had been considering it before. The flow of refugees has already picked up.
Kaluga Region took in 31 refugees from Kursk. August 11. Source: VK
What we know about refugees from Belgorod Region
Among survey respondents who have left Belgorod Region, young people (19% were 18–29-year-olds) outnumbered old people (4% were 60 years old or older). For 77% of the women and 62% of the men who have left, at least one of their relatives remain in Belgorod. This pattern is apparently due to men sending women and children away while they stay behind to work and/or guard the house.
A house or apartment must be protected from looting: this is the view of 21% of Belgorod residents without relatives who have left and 37% of those with relatives who have left.
Those whose loved ones have left report emotional distress: 69% mentioned tension, anxiety or melancholy. Among Belgorod residents whose relatives have stayed, this figure is 45%.
The strongest stress factors in this war, behind only the death and injury of loved ones, are the loss of a home, flight (becoming a refugee) and separation from friends and family.
The departure of relatives makes it harder for those remaining to stay. Among Belgorod residents without relatives who have left, 36% acknowledge the possibility of moving, while among those whose relatives have left, the figure is 60%.
Among survey respondents who have left Belgorod Region, young people (19% were 18–29-year-olds) outnumbered old people (4% were 60 years old or older). For 77% of the women and 62% of the men who have left, at least one of their relatives remain in Belgorod. This pattern is apparently due to men sending women and children away while they stay behind to work and/or guard the house.
A house or apartment must be protected from looting: this is the view of 21% of Belgorod residents without relatives who have left and 37% of those with relatives who have left.
Those whose loved ones have left report emotional distress: 69% mentioned tension, anxiety or melancholy. Among Belgorod residents whose relatives have stayed, this figure is 45%.
The strongest stress factors in this war, behind only the death and injury of loved ones, are the loss of a home, flight (becoming a refugee) and separation from friends and family.
The departure of relatives makes it harder for those remaining to stay. Among Belgorod residents without relatives who have left, 36% acknowledge the possibility of moving, while among those whose relatives have left, the figure is 60%.
“Obviously, the decision to move depends on one’s level of mobility and income – leaving for the unknown is easier if you have some savings.”
Just six percent of Belgorod Region residents with an income of up to RUB 30,000/month per family member have left; among those with an income of more than RUB 70,000/month per family member, meanwhile, the figure is more than five times higher at 33%. Nevertheless, in the breakdown of those who have left, we see the lower income group (up to RUB30,000/month per family member) accounts for 42%. These people are in dire need of financial assistance when relocating and settling in a new place.
Sixteen percent of those who have moved report receiving some kind of help from local authorities – financial, legal and/or assistance in finding accommodation. Accordingly, the rest did not receive any support. At the same time, three quarters of the displaced Belgorod residents we surveyed said that they were treated warmly in their new place of residence (by people, not officials, it seems).
The housing situation among those forced to leave their home because of the war varies: 8% reported that they live in housing provided by the state, 17% with relatives, 20% have bought something, 49% rent and 7% live in a dormitory provided by their place of work or study.
These refugees are significantly less likely to express rhetorical support for the “special military operation.” In response to a direct question about it, only half of the displaced answered in the affirmative, while among the rest of those who remain two thirds stated their support.
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and peace negotiations without the initial goals of the “special operation” having been achieved would be supported by 52% of those who have left versus 34% of those who remain.
Many more of the displaced people – 58% (versus 34% among those who remain) – do not believe in Putin’s infallibility and acknowledge that he can make mistakes in leading the state (including the Ukraine conflict).
The Kursk incursion and the views of new refugees
Events in Kursk Region have been much more dramatic.
Sixteen percent of those who have moved report receiving some kind of help from local authorities – financial, legal and/or assistance in finding accommodation. Accordingly, the rest did not receive any support. At the same time, three quarters of the displaced Belgorod residents we surveyed said that they were treated warmly in their new place of residence (by people, not officials, it seems).
The housing situation among those forced to leave their home because of the war varies: 8% reported that they live in housing provided by the state, 17% with relatives, 20% have bought something, 49% rent and 7% live in a dormitory provided by their place of work or study.
These refugees are significantly less likely to express rhetorical support for the “special military operation.” In response to a direct question about it, only half of the displaced answered in the affirmative, while among the rest of those who remain two thirds stated their support.
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and peace negotiations without the initial goals of the “special operation” having been achieved would be supported by 52% of those who have left versus 34% of those who remain.
Many more of the displaced people – 58% (versus 34% among those who remain) – do not believe in Putin’s infallibility and acknowledge that he can make mistakes in leading the state (including the Ukraine conflict).
The Kursk incursion and the views of new refugees
Events in Kursk Region have been much more dramatic.
“What had unfolded in Belgorod Region over the course of 30 months happened there in a week and resulted in mass flight.”
Sixty-nine refugees (including 27 children) from Kursk Region made their way to Nizhny Novgorod Region without support from the government. August 13, Source: VK
The sudden invasion of Ukrainian troops, the ground operation's radical novelty, and the speed of occupation greatly intensify the psychological shock and organizational chaos for the residents of the Kursk region. These factors result in more severe consequences for them than their Belgorod neighbours and create even more significant uncertainty for the near future.
For two and a half long years, despite periodic shelling of Kursk Region and serious losses in neighboring Belgorod Region, Kursk residents pushed the war out of their everyday lives. In an interview with Khodorkovsky Live (a YouTube news channel), Yekaterina Duntsova, an antiwar politician and volunteer, shared her conversation with a refugee from Sudzha, Kursk Region, who had been placed in a dormitory in the city of Kursk:
Duntsova: How long have you been here?
Refugee: Since the beginning of the war.
Duntsova: Since ‘22?
Refugee: No, we’ve been here for 6 days
Duntsova: What was before that?!
Refugee: We just lived.
The habitual infantilism, as well as the lack of a critical attitude toward the authorities and sympathy even for the residents of the neighboring region, are shifting as Kursk residents suffer now, too.
For two and a half long years, despite periodic shelling of Kursk Region and serious losses in neighboring Belgorod Region, Kursk residents pushed the war out of their everyday lives. In an interview with Khodorkovsky Live (a YouTube news channel), Yekaterina Duntsova, an antiwar politician and volunteer, shared her conversation with a refugee from Sudzha, Kursk Region, who had been placed in a dormitory in the city of Kursk:
Duntsova: How long have you been here?
Refugee: Since the beginning of the war.
Duntsova: Since ‘22?
Refugee: No, we’ve been here for 6 days
Duntsova: What was before that?!
Refugee: We just lived.
The habitual infantilism, as well as the lack of a critical attitude toward the authorities and sympathy even for the residents of the neighboring region, are shifting as Kursk residents suffer now, too.
“The perception of the war and the government will inevitably become more negative in Kursk Region. No propaganda about a national war of liberation will help.”
When panicked people have to save their own lives and care for their own health and those of their loved ones without support from the state, that state should not count on consolidation when the enemy is at the gates.
About refugees from Ukraine
For residents of Russia, the experience of occupation is new. To better understand the human toll of the war, let’s look at the refugee situation in Ukraine, which has been dealing with a full-scale invasion since 2022.
According to UN Human Rights Office, as of July 15, 2024, there are 6,579,700 Ukrainian refugees abroad. Ukrainians who have left their place of residence are called internally displaced persons (IDPs). Statistics on them are handled by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) at the UN. The latest IOM report estimates that in Ukraine, as of June 2024, there are 3,548,000 actual IDPs and 4,734,000 repatriates (those who had left their place of residence but returned to the country). An estimated 82% of IDPs have been displaced for more than a year, with 591 days being the average duration for all IDPs. The most frequently mentioned needs of IDPs were food (39%), clothing and other nonfood items (25%), and hygiene products (21%).
About refugees from Ukraine
For residents of Russia, the experience of occupation is new. To better understand the human toll of the war, let’s look at the refugee situation in Ukraine, which has been dealing with a full-scale invasion since 2022.
According to UN Human Rights Office, as of July 15, 2024, there are 6,579,700 Ukrainian refugees abroad. Ukrainians who have left their place of residence are called internally displaced persons (IDPs). Statistics on them are handled by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) at the UN. The latest IOM report estimates that in Ukraine, as of June 2024, there are 3,548,000 actual IDPs and 4,734,000 repatriates (those who had left their place of residence but returned to the country). An estimated 82% of IDPs have been displaced for more than a year, with 591 days being the average duration for all IDPs. The most frequently mentioned needs of IDPs were food (39%), clothing and other nonfood items (25%), and hygiene products (21%).
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