Safety valvesThe UOC may continue to insist that it has already severed all ties to the ROC, so the recent law does not apply to it. The State Service for Ethnopolitics and Freedom of Conscience, so as not to disappoint the opponents of the “Moscow” church (two thirds of the country, according to an
April survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology) will have to issue a warning, though it is not entirely clear to whom, as the UOC is not registered as a legal entity.
Apparently, warnings will be issued to regional dioceses, many of which are already under pressure. Even before the law was adopted, the UOC was banned in Rivne, Lviv, Khmelnytskyi and Volyn regions by regional lawmakers. It is also unclear how the dioceses should sever ties to the Moscow Patriarchate. As a result, disputes may go on for a while and wind up in the courts.
Once the clergy exhausts all legal options in Ukraine, they will go to the European Court of Human Rights, while the authorities will be able to start annulling contracts for the use of churches. Meanwhile, the government has virtually no basis to interfere in the activities of churches that are privately owned. Article 4 of the law envisages sanctions by decision of the National Security and Defense Council – but only for foreign religious organizations. For example, Deputy
Yevgeniya Kravchuk from the Servant of the People faction in the Rada is confident that private property will remain inviolable: “these religious organizations, even after being liquidated, can transfer [their property] to a public organization, to an individual... this is a European norm, we do not determine where people pray.”
Ukrainian legislation will not stop people from gathering and praying, even if the Ethnopolitics Service brings each of the 6,000-7,000 parishes to court, as another deputy, Volodymyr Ariev, from the European Solidarity faction, believes.
Of course, many believers may find it uncomfortable to receive spiritual guidance in a banned Church. But a mass outflow of religious communities and parishioners to the OCU is unlikely in the near future. In the first year and a half after Russia’s full-scale invasion, there was a major migration, but then it gradually faded.