Politics
Why Putin Feels Compelled to Continue his War
August 28, 2025
- Hanna NotteDirector of the Eurasia Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, at Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and Senior Associate (Non-Resident) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Political scientist Hanna Notte argues that giving in is not an option for Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine. Russia's entire foreign policy, its future international status and its very destiny depend on its outcome.
The original text in German was published in Die Zeit and is republished here with their kind permission, and authorized by author.
After the summit marathon of the past few weeks, signs are mounting that Russia will continue its war against Ukraine with undiminished ferocity. Statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggest that there will be no meeting between Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy anytime soon. Russia also claims a veto right over any security guarantees for Ukraine and rejects as unacceptable any presence of foreign troops to secure peace. Meanwhile, Russia's military continues to attack Ukraine with hundreds of drones and missiles and its troops inch forward in the Donetsk region.
Putin continues to fight because he has the means and because he believes that Russia will outlast its adversaries in this war. Russia manages to recruit about twice as many soldiers daily as does Ukraine. It has significantly expanded the domestic production of Geran-2 drones over the past twelve months. And fundamentally, Russia has adapted its foreign trade policy to the needs of a protracted showdown with the West.
Russian entrepreneurs and state-owned companies are constantly finding new loopholes in the EU sanctions regime. The shadow fleet shipping Russian oil is growing. Trade with non-Western countries is booming. Meanwhile, Putin calculates that Russia's partners, especially China and North Korea, will be more consistent in their support than will be Ukraine's Western backers.
After the summit marathon of the past few weeks, signs are mounting that Russia will continue its war against Ukraine with undiminished ferocity. Statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggest that there will be no meeting between Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy anytime soon. Russia also claims a veto right over any security guarantees for Ukraine and rejects as unacceptable any presence of foreign troops to secure peace. Meanwhile, Russia's military continues to attack Ukraine with hundreds of drones and missiles and its troops inch forward in the Donetsk region.
Putin continues to fight because he has the means and because he believes that Russia will outlast its adversaries in this war. Russia manages to recruit about twice as many soldiers daily as does Ukraine. It has significantly expanded the domestic production of Geran-2 drones over the past twelve months. And fundamentally, Russia has adapted its foreign trade policy to the needs of a protracted showdown with the West.
Russian entrepreneurs and state-owned companies are constantly finding new loopholes in the EU sanctions regime. The shadow fleet shipping Russian oil is growing. Trade with non-Western countries is booming. Meanwhile, Putin calculates that Russia's partners, especially China and North Korea, will be more consistent in their support than will be Ukraine's Western backers.
“Putin is continuing the war not only because he can, but also because he believes he must.”
Kazan hosted first plenary session of the 16th BRICS Summit in the Outreach/BRICS+ format. Source: Wiki Commons
Putin's ultimate goal is an imposed peace. The necessity to continue fighting until that point arises from a historically and culturally derived and stubbornly ideological claim that it is up to Russia to decide the political fate of a demilitarized Ukraine.
That aside, the war has also long become the organizing principle of Russia's globally oriented foreign policy. Putin has grudgingly accepted the loss of influence in other regions for the sake of the war in Ukraine; Russia's ideas about global order revolve around this war; and its outcome will either permanently strengthen or severely damage Russia's reputation in the Global South.
Over the past three and a half years Russia has poured enormous military, political, and economic resources into the war. Meanwhile, it has at times lacked the means to assert its influence elsewhere. In the South Caucasus, good economic relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey became more important to a sanctioned Russia than the security interests of its long-time ally Armenia.
When Azerbaijan took control of the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, Putin stood by and Russian peacekeepers did not intervene. When Syrian rebels advanced toward Damascus at the end of 2024 and ultimately overthrew the Assad regime, Russia lacked the military means (and the political will) to rescue its ally. Russia also could do little for its partner Iran during the regional escalation with Israel, which has unfolded since October 7, 2023. Who wages a major war against a large neighbor cannot juggle too many balls at once.
The outcome of the Ukraine war will determine Russia’s role
One may argue: if Putin were to end the war against Ukraine tomorrow, Russia's foreign policy leeway would theoretically expand again. The Russian military could then reassert itself in other regions. The problem, however, is that Russia's authority in the South Caucasus and Central Asia— those regions that Moscow's rulers claim as their privileged sphere of influence— is closely tied to the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
That aside, the war has also long become the organizing principle of Russia's globally oriented foreign policy. Putin has grudgingly accepted the loss of influence in other regions for the sake of the war in Ukraine; Russia's ideas about global order revolve around this war; and its outcome will either permanently strengthen or severely damage Russia's reputation in the Global South.
Over the past three and a half years Russia has poured enormous military, political, and economic resources into the war. Meanwhile, it has at times lacked the means to assert its influence elsewhere. In the South Caucasus, good economic relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey became more important to a sanctioned Russia than the security interests of its long-time ally Armenia.
When Azerbaijan took control of the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, Putin stood by and Russian peacekeepers did not intervene. When Syrian rebels advanced toward Damascus at the end of 2024 and ultimately overthrew the Assad regime, Russia lacked the military means (and the political will) to rescue its ally. Russia also could do little for its partner Iran during the regional escalation with Israel, which has unfolded since October 7, 2023. Who wages a major war against a large neighbor cannot juggle too many balls at once.
The outcome of the Ukraine war will determine Russia’s role
One may argue: if Putin were to end the war against Ukraine tomorrow, Russia's foreign policy leeway would theoretically expand again. The Russian military could then reassert itself in other regions. The problem, however, is that Russia's authority in the South Caucasus and Central Asia— those regions that Moscow's rulers claim as their privileged sphere of influence— is closely tied to the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
“If Putin backs down in Ukraine, he rightly fears losing further influence – whether in Ankara or Astana, Baku or Bishkek, Tashkent or Tbilisi.”
And Putin's dilemma extends far beyond the post-Soviet space. The Russian president has anchored his entire foreign policy narrative, which Russian diplomats consistently propagate at the United Nations and in the global information war, on the Ukraine war. Russia (which itself is today deeply capitalist) proclaims itself a vanguard in the fight against Western "imperialism" and "neocolonialism."
In this telling, Ukraine is the linchpin of an alleged systemic struggle:
If Russia yields in the fight against the West over Ukraine, other countries will fall victim to the dictates of Washington or Brussels next. For the ‘global majority,’ the supposedly fairer, multipolar, post-Western order that Putin promises would then remain no more than a fleeting illusion. At the Russia-Africa Summit in summer 2023, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova summed up this narrative when she solemnly announced before Africa officials that Russian soldiers were sacrificing their lives on the Ukrainian front so that Africa—and the rest of the world—could live in freedom.
In this telling, Ukraine is the linchpin of an alleged systemic struggle:
If Russia yields in the fight against the West over Ukraine, other countries will fall victim to the dictates of Washington or Brussels next. For the ‘global majority,’ the supposedly fairer, multipolar, post-Western order that Putin promises would then remain no more than a fleeting illusion. At the Russia-Africa Summit in summer 2023, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova summed up this narrative when she solemnly announced before Africa officials that Russian soldiers were sacrificing their lives on the Ukrainian front so that Africa—and the rest of the world—could live in freedom.
Putin and African Delegations at Russia-Africa Summit. St Petersburg, July 2023. Source: YouTube
In this context, a Russia that insists on its maximalist war aims in Ukraine is a Russia that defies the West on behalf of theworld‘s disgruntled; it is the only David taking on Goliath. This narrative resonates because, in the imagination of many non-Western societies, the war is primarily a proxy war between the West (i.e., NATO) and Russia, and only secondarily a war of aggression that Russia has unleashed onto Ukraine in violation of international law.
Putin's strategic dead end
In a war that Russian propaganda has hyped up as pivotal for the fate of humanity, Putin cannot simply back down. What else does today's Russia have to offer the world? It exports little of note beyond oil and gas, fertilizers, grain, and certain weapons systems. Russia is a nuclear power, has a veto in the UN Security Council, and naturally sees itself as a greatpower. But if Russia cannot prevail in Ukraine, then what are these attributes worth?
Some Russian intellectuals may claim that this war will permanently harden and strengthen Russia.
Putin's strategic dead end
In a war that Russian propaganda has hyped up as pivotal for the fate of humanity, Putin cannot simply back down. What else does today's Russia have to offer the world? It exports little of note beyond oil and gas, fertilizers, grain, and certain weapons systems. Russia is a nuclear power, has a veto in the UN Security Council, and naturally sees itself as a greatpower. But if Russia cannot prevail in Ukraine, then what are these attributes worth?
Some Russian intellectuals may claim that this war will permanently harden and strengthen Russia.
That a complete break with a West that supposedly showed insufficient respect for Russia after the end of the Cold War was long overdue. That the war is consolidating Russian society and strengthening domestic industries. Narratives that justify, even glorify, war are as old as war itself.
The fact is, however, that with its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has maneuvered itself into a strategic dead end. Russia is relentlessly waging a war that can only weaken the country in the long run. This war is disfiguring the Russian economy, it is making the country highly dependent on China, and it has shattered relations with Ukraine and Europe for generations.
Nevertheless, it is also a war that Vladimir Putin cannot easily end – because he has made Russia’s destiny dependent on its outcome.
The fact is, however, that with its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has maneuvered itself into a strategic dead end. Russia is relentlessly waging a war that can only weaken the country in the long run. This war is disfiguring the Russian economy, it is making the country highly dependent on China, and it has shattered relations with Ukraine and Europe for generations.
Nevertheless, it is also a war that Vladimir Putin cannot easily end – because he has made Russia’s destiny dependent on its outcome.
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