Digest of Russian media
How Exiled Russian Journalists and Political Analysts Predicted and Followed the Recent Prisoner Exchange
August 6, 2024
In mid-July, about two weeks before the biggest prisoner swap since the Cold War took place, Russian journalists had reported that an exchange could be imminent. On July 18, after a court hearing for Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter accused of espionage, the news outlet Agentstvo spoke with Yevgeny Smirnov, a lawyer from the human rights group Pervy Otdel (Department One). Smirnov pointed out that the case was moving unusually fast, with procedures usually taking much longer, even when there is a full confession.
He suggested that this might be a hopeful sign, saying: “this speed may signal a green light for an exchange.”
On July 29, Russian media in exile started reporting that political prisoners were disappearing from their prisons. Among the first was Lilia Chanysheva, the former head of Alexei Navalny’s regional office in Ufa. Having been sentenced to nine and a half years for “organizing an extremist organization,” she was discovered to be missing after her husband, Almaz Gatin, posted about it on X. As it turned out, she was to be one of the exchanged political prisoners.
“On July 28, I brought a package for Lilia Chanysheva to the IK-28 penal colony in Berezniki, where I found out that on July 26 [she] had left the facility. Today, I submitted a written request to the colony. I am asking everyone for help in finding my wife,” Gatin wrote.
By July 30, two days before the swap, Russian journalists had compiled a list of seven missing political prisoners. Six of them were eventually exchanged.
At that time, several theories were circulating about what was going on, including a prisoner exchange. That idea was backed by Ivan Pavlov, the head of Pervy Otdel.
“Clearly, a major exchange is being prepared. The question is who will be included in it,” Pavlov told the news site Mozhem Obyasnit (We Can Explain) on July 30.
He added that the exchange likely would include Evan Gershkovich and Rico Krieger, a German citizen who had been sentenced to death (but then hastily pardoned) in Belarus for fighting in Ukraine.
“I hope that, for humanitarian reasons, they will also include our [Russian] political prisoners,” Pavlov noted. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the disappearance of the prisoners from the colonies could be just a diversionary tactic, with only foreigners exchanged in the end.
Olga Romanova, the head of Rus Sidyashchaya (Russia Behind Bars), an organization that advocates for prisoners’ rights, also was inclined to believe a prisoner exchange was afoot.
“Honestly, I do not understand what’s happening. I hope for an exchange involving Ukrainian collaborators,” Romanova told Mozhem Obyasnit on July 30, before adding: “though that would be a miracle.”
On July 30, Russian journalist Dmitri Kolezev posted on his Telegram channel that a swap appeared to be the most logical explanation for the disappearance of the political prisoners. However, he also suggested a less optimistic possibility: “the political prisoners might have been simply gathered in a single place, for example, in a single colony. For instance, to make it easier to control them, to prevent them from influencing other prisoners, or to conduct investigative procedures in the context of new criminal cases.”
On the same day, July 30, Dmitri Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, declined to comment on a potential exchange when asked by journalists from the newspaper Vedomosti.
On July 31, the state news agency RIA Novosti reported that information about several Russian prisoners had disappeared from the US Federal Bureau of Prisons database.
Around the same time, Agentstvo noted that starting from July 26, several flights from the presidential fleet had departed from regions in Russia where prisoners who might be exchanged were held.
Whereas most of the talk was about an exchange involving around 7-10 people, on July 31 independent Russian journalist Pyotr Kozlov reported on his Substack that Russia was preparing to release “20-30 political prisoners in a massive exchange with the West.” His source, described as “familiar with the preparations,” suggested that it would be “the largest swap since the end of the Cold War,” which later proved to be accurate.
“I know of more people than those who have already been mentioned publicly,” Kozlov’s source stated. Eventually, Russia released 16 people.
On August 1, the day of the swap, journalists from Sirena discovered that a plane from the Rossiya special flight squadron had flown from Moscow to Ankara, Turkey, where the exchange was scheduled to occur.
The Russian media Vazhnie Istorii (Important Stories), meanwhile, reported that a US Air Force aircraft, along with a US commercial jet, was heading to Ankara. Less than an hour later, Bloomberg confirmed that the first political prisoners had been exchanged there.
That evening, Leonid Volkov, an associate of Alexei Navalny, revealed that Navalny, who died in a Russian prison on February 16, had initially been set to be part of the exchange. Right after his death six months ago, Navalny’s supporters had claimed there were such plans, though many people had been skeptical of these claims at the time.
“The ‘Navalny exchange’ ultimately took place. (Here, one could mention all those who, in February, were quick to ‘deny’ that such an exchange was being organized, but they are not worth mentioning.) But without Navalny. It is very painful,” Volkov wrote on his Telegram channel.
He suggested that this might be a hopeful sign, saying: “this speed may signal a green light for an exchange.”
On July 29, Russian media in exile started reporting that political prisoners were disappearing from their prisons. Among the first was Lilia Chanysheva, the former head of Alexei Navalny’s regional office in Ufa. Having been sentenced to nine and a half years for “organizing an extremist organization,” she was discovered to be missing after her husband, Almaz Gatin, posted about it on X. As it turned out, she was to be one of the exchanged political prisoners.
“On July 28, I brought a package for Lilia Chanysheva to the IK-28 penal colony in Berezniki, where I found out that on July 26 [she] had left the facility. Today, I submitted a written request to the colony. I am asking everyone for help in finding my wife,” Gatin wrote.
By July 30, two days before the swap, Russian journalists had compiled a list of seven missing political prisoners. Six of them were eventually exchanged.
At that time, several theories were circulating about what was going on, including a prisoner exchange. That idea was backed by Ivan Pavlov, the head of Pervy Otdel.
“Clearly, a major exchange is being prepared. The question is who will be included in it,” Pavlov told the news site Mozhem Obyasnit (We Can Explain) on July 30.
He added that the exchange likely would include Evan Gershkovich and Rico Krieger, a German citizen who had been sentenced to death (but then hastily pardoned) in Belarus for fighting in Ukraine.
“I hope that, for humanitarian reasons, they will also include our [Russian] political prisoners,” Pavlov noted. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the disappearance of the prisoners from the colonies could be just a diversionary tactic, with only foreigners exchanged in the end.
Olga Romanova, the head of Rus Sidyashchaya (Russia Behind Bars), an organization that advocates for prisoners’ rights, also was inclined to believe a prisoner exchange was afoot.
“Honestly, I do not understand what’s happening. I hope for an exchange involving Ukrainian collaborators,” Romanova told Mozhem Obyasnit on July 30, before adding: “though that would be a miracle.”
On July 30, Russian journalist Dmitri Kolezev posted on his Telegram channel that a swap appeared to be the most logical explanation for the disappearance of the political prisoners. However, he also suggested a less optimistic possibility: “the political prisoners might have been simply gathered in a single place, for example, in a single colony. For instance, to make it easier to control them, to prevent them from influencing other prisoners, or to conduct investigative procedures in the context of new criminal cases.”
On the same day, July 30, Dmitri Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, declined to comment on a potential exchange when asked by journalists from the newspaper Vedomosti.
On July 31, the state news agency RIA Novosti reported that information about several Russian prisoners had disappeared from the US Federal Bureau of Prisons database.
Around the same time, Agentstvo noted that starting from July 26, several flights from the presidential fleet had departed from regions in Russia where prisoners who might be exchanged were held.
Whereas most of the talk was about an exchange involving around 7-10 people, on July 31 independent Russian journalist Pyotr Kozlov reported on his Substack that Russia was preparing to release “20-30 political prisoners in a massive exchange with the West.” His source, described as “familiar with the preparations,” suggested that it would be “the largest swap since the end of the Cold War,” which later proved to be accurate.
“I know of more people than those who have already been mentioned publicly,” Kozlov’s source stated. Eventually, Russia released 16 people.
On August 1, the day of the swap, journalists from Sirena discovered that a plane from the Rossiya special flight squadron had flown from Moscow to Ankara, Turkey, where the exchange was scheduled to occur.
The Russian media Vazhnie Istorii (Important Stories), meanwhile, reported that a US Air Force aircraft, along with a US commercial jet, was heading to Ankara. Less than an hour later, Bloomberg confirmed that the first political prisoners had been exchanged there.
That evening, Leonid Volkov, an associate of Alexei Navalny, revealed that Navalny, who died in a Russian prison on February 16, had initially been set to be part of the exchange. Right after his death six months ago, Navalny’s supporters had claimed there were such plans, though many people had been skeptical of these claims at the time.
“The ‘Navalny exchange’ ultimately took place. (Here, one could mention all those who, in February, were quick to ‘deny’ that such an exchange was being organized, but they are not worth mentioning.) But without Navalny. It is very painful,” Volkov wrote on his Telegram channel.
Sofia Sorochinskaia
Russia.Post
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