The birth rate in Russia has dropped to a historical low. According to Rosstat, the state statistics agency, only 599,600 children were born in the first six months of the year, the lowest number since the post-crisis year of 1999.

Some estimates have Russia’s population dropping from the current 146 million to 128 million by 2050, from the ninth most populous country to the seventeenth.

The Ukraine war is inevitably worsening an already-dismal demographic situation. In a study by the Higher School of Economics, about a third of Russians who have put off or decided not to have children cited the war as a reason. Another third fingered difficult economic conditions, domestic and global political instability, and financial struggles.

“Those who turn down or postpone having a child have recently experienced more negative emotions – such as anxiety and fear – disagree with where the country’s headed and see [the Russian government social program] maternity capital an insignificant measure of support. Meanwhile, the decision to not have a child is more often made by women with children, as well as respondents who have low incomes, in their own opinion, or have seen their income decrease over the past year,” the study says.

More people, particularly young men, are signing up for the Russian army. In mid-September, Putin signed a decree to increase the size of the Russian army by 180,000 compared to last year. That comes as the total number of casualties from the Russia-Ukraine war, according to the Wall Street Journal, has reached one million.

Vladimir Putin frequently underscores the importance of having at least three children per family. He says that one of the causes of the demographic decline is that couples start thinking about having children too late. “Too late” for him is by the age of 30.

“If two people only produce one child, the population decreases. Even if they have two children, it remains flat. To ensure population growth, at least three children are needed. And for this to happen, families should start having children earlier,” Putin said at a meeting with university students in Kaliningrad Region in January.

Twenty twenty-four is officially called the “Year of the Family,” and the family values campaign has been stepped up. Family propaganda starts at an early age. This month, Russian schools introduced a new subject called “family studies,” promoting, among other things, the idea of having multiple children in every family.

“The goal of the course is to introduce young people to the traditional family values system of our Motherland and to cultivate pro-family value orientations such as marriage, having several children, and chastity,” says the course syllabus.

One of the key measures of the Russian authorities to raise birth rates is the maternity capital program, with payments made upon the birth of a child. Initially, it was available only to families with two or more children, but since 2020 first-time parents too have been eligible. The payments go up every year, in 2024 reaching RUB 630,400 ($6,955) a first child and RUB 833,000 ($9,190) for a second.

Demographers agree that the way maternity capital operates now is ineffective, as it motivates families to have a child sooner, not to have more children.

“I think that [the Russian authorities] were guided by a basic, amateur understanding that if there is no first child, there will not be any others... Sure, you cannot have a second child without having a first. But that does not mean that after the first, there will necessarily be a second,” Novaya Gazeta quotes demographer Alexei Raksha.

Responding to the demand from the Kremlin, Russian officials at various levels have proposed a variety of measures to tackle the problem of a shrinking population, but their effectiveness is dubious at best.

After the Kremlin launched a pro-life propaganda campaign, private clinics in several regions – including Tatarstan, Mordovia, Kursk, Chelyabinsk and annexed Crimea – have either fully or partially stopped performing abortions. Additionally, at least 10 regions have introduced fines for “encouraging abortions.”

In Perm Region, the authorities have introduced an additional payment of approximately RUB 128,000 ($1,412) for a child fathered by someone who served in Ukraine. If the father is declared deceased or missing, the family has 300 days to apply.

Duma Deputy Irina Filatova has pointed out that money does not solve the problem. In her view, to boost the birth rate, moral and “ethical values and religious beliefs” must be promoted, with access to education, health care and ideas about self-development hindering women from thinking about family, she says. Society should “view children as an integral part of a normal human life.”

“The ideas of childlessness, nontraditional relationships and the replacement of traditional family values with consumerism, self-development and cats and dogs must disappear from the information space at all levels,” Filatova said in an interview with the radio station Govorit Moskva.

Moscow State University Professor Andrei Milekhin has proposed “strategic deurbanization,” which entails relocating families from large cities to smaller towns with low-rise buildings.

Filatova’s colleague, Duma Deputy Valery Seleznev, has suggested on his Telegram channel that female inmates should be pardoned if they give birth while incarcerated.

“The state can offer them [incarcerated women] a deal where a woman’s prison sentence is interrupted and, if she gives birth during this ‘vacation,’ the remainder of her sentence is canceled. This approach addresses several issues at once: demographic and social/humanitarian,” wrote Seleznev.

Russia has introduced a new national holiday called the “Day of Pregnant [Women].” In Ulyanovsk Region, the authorities have also established a “conception day,” officially known as the “Day of Family Communication,” to be celebrated on September 12. Media report that the aim is to encourage children to be born nine months later, around Russia National Day on June 12. Ulyanovsk residents will enjoy the day off for the holiday.

In addition, women under the age of 38 living in Moscow have received notifications to take fertility tests. Not everyone got one, and how those who did were selected remains a mystery, but it was interpreted as soft encouragement to give birth.

More and more politicians are calling to outlaw the child-free movement and feminism. Valentina Matviyenko, who chairs the Federation Council, said in an interview with Izvestia in mid-September that modern feminism had radicalized and lost its original goals. She believes that a woman can only be fulfilled if she “embraces her primary mission” – being a mother, grandmother and wife.

“This has turned into a standoff and a movement ‘against men,’ ‘against traditional values.’ It involves various genders, more than fifty of which have already been invented. Or, let’s say, the child-free movement, which, in my opinion, should be banned legislatively,” Matviyenko said.

A court in Tver Region has ruled to ban several groups on the Russian social network VK that featured memes about the child-free movement. The largest of them had just 126 subscribers. Among the memes was one depicting a couple in love, with the guy proposing to the girl and the caption “When I found out she is infertile.”