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Venediktov, Belkovsky, Other Russian Political Analysts on US-Russia Relations after Budapest Summit Canceled
October 30, 2025
Following the cancellation of the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin’s informal negotiator with the US, departed for Washington on another diplomatic mission. Russian experts believe he could be a relatable figure for the Americans, yet they doubt he has the authority to resolve fundamental issues of war and peace in Ukraine. In recent days, Russia has also tested its Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile – an escalatory move whose goal could be to force the West and Ukraine into accepting Moscow’s peace terms.
The Trump-Putin summit in Budapest summit did not materialize. US President Donald Trump announced that he was canceling due to the lack of progress in negotiations on Ukraine and bad timing. “We canceled the meeting with President Putin – it just didn’t feel right to me,” Trump told reporters. “It didn’t feel like we were going to get to the place we have to get. So I canceled it, but we’ll do it in the future.”
At the same time, Washington has ratcheted up the pressure on Moscow by imposing new sanctions on the Russian oil sector. Trump noted that the US had waited too long for Moscow to make concessions, though he did not rule out a swift end to the conflict and the lifting of sanctions. The Kremlin expressed regret over the cancellation of the summit while affirming its commitment to continue working toward a peaceful resolution. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Putin still accepts the US-proposed concept for resolving the conflict and intends to follow it.
At the same time, Washington has ratcheted up the pressure on Moscow by imposing new sanctions on the Russian oil sector. Trump noted that the US had waited too long for Moscow to make concessions, though he did not rule out a swift end to the conflict and the lifting of sanctions. The Kremlin expressed regret over the cancellation of the summit while affirming its commitment to continue working toward a peaceful resolution. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Putin still accepts the US-proposed concept for resolving the conflict and intends to follow it.
Steven Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev
Source: Kremlin.ru
Source: Kremlin.ru
The Kremlin’s secret weapon
Following the cancellation of the summit, Kirill Dmitriev, who heads Russian Direct Investment Fund and has been Kremlin’s informal negotiator with the Trump administration, flew to the US for talks with US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff. Speaking to CNN, Dmitriev said that Russia seeks to end the conflict as quickly as possible.
“He is a negotiator the Americans understand. He, like Steve Witkoff, is not embedded in the large, bureaucratic machinery of the Foreign Ministry or the State Department. Kirill Dmitriev is a Stanford graduate who built his own career in America. Traditional diplomacy has reached a dead end. I think Witkoff’s one-on-one dialogue with Dmitriev is much more frank than the telephone conversations between the foreign ministers,” says Alexei Naumov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank sponsored by the Russian Foreign Ministry, and author of the @vneshpol Telegram channel.
“It is also significant that Kirill Dmitriev is close to some of the most prominent names in the Russian elite,” notes Ilya Grashchenkov, a Russia-based political analyst. He is referring to Dmitriev’s wife, Natalia Popova, a friend of Putin’s daughter, Katerina Tikhonova. “Nobody understands the scope of Dmitriev’s powers as a negotiator. He is perceived negatively in the patriotic, pro-government camp. Among those who seek a return to ‘normalcy,’ despite Dmitriev’s closeness to the ruling elite, some place their hopes on him,” Grashchenkov believes.
Stanislav Belkovsky, another political analyst, argues that Dmitriev is responsible for the business side of a possible Putin-Trump deal. “The purpose of his visit was to confirm that this business bloc exists and that Russia is not turning down an invitation to develop massive mineral resources jointly, including lithium and rare earth metals, as well as projects in the Arctic. Another matter is that certain issues fall outside of the purview of Kirill Dmitriev or any other Russian officials, as Putin handles them personally. The positions of people in his circle have no bearing. This is about Putin’s desire to take control of Ukraine. The Russian president cannot abandon that position.” Belkovsky believes that Dmitriev will likely be unable to get commercial agreements inked before a ceasefire in Ukraine is achieved.
Following the cancellation of the summit, Kirill Dmitriev, who heads Russian Direct Investment Fund and has been Kremlin’s informal negotiator with the Trump administration, flew to the US for talks with US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff. Speaking to CNN, Dmitriev said that Russia seeks to end the conflict as quickly as possible.
“He is a negotiator the Americans understand. He, like Steve Witkoff, is not embedded in the large, bureaucratic machinery of the Foreign Ministry or the State Department. Kirill Dmitriev is a Stanford graduate who built his own career in America. Traditional diplomacy has reached a dead end. I think Witkoff’s one-on-one dialogue with Dmitriev is much more frank than the telephone conversations between the foreign ministers,” says Alexei Naumov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank sponsored by the Russian Foreign Ministry, and author of the @vneshpol Telegram channel.
“It is also significant that Kirill Dmitriev is close to some of the most prominent names in the Russian elite,” notes Ilya Grashchenkov, a Russia-based political analyst. He is referring to Dmitriev’s wife, Natalia Popova, a friend of Putin’s daughter, Katerina Tikhonova. “Nobody understands the scope of Dmitriev’s powers as a negotiator. He is perceived negatively in the patriotic, pro-government camp. Among those who seek a return to ‘normalcy,’ despite Dmitriev’s closeness to the ruling elite, some place their hopes on him,” Grashchenkov believes.
Stanislav Belkovsky, another political analyst, argues that Dmitriev is responsible for the business side of a possible Putin-Trump deal. “The purpose of his visit was to confirm that this business bloc exists and that Russia is not turning down an invitation to develop massive mineral resources jointly, including lithium and rare earth metals, as well as projects in the Arctic. Another matter is that certain issues fall outside of the purview of Kirill Dmitriev or any other Russian officials, as Putin handles them personally. The positions of people in his circle have no bearing. This is about Putin’s desire to take control of Ukraine. The Russian president cannot abandon that position.” Belkovsky believes that Dmitriev will likely be unable to get commercial agreements inked before a ceasefire in Ukraine is achieved.
Burevestnik Missile Launch in 2018
Source: Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
Source: Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
Flexing its muscle
Moscow also responded to the cancellation of the Budapest meeting with a demonstrative display of its military might. Several days after, Russia conducted large-scale nuclear exercises. On October 22, Putin remotely oversaw the strategic exercises, which included launches of a Yars ICBM from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome and a Sineva missile from a submarine in the Barents Sea.
On October 26, speaking to the high command, Putin announced the successful test of the latest nuclear-powered 9M730 Burevestnik cruise missile. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported that the missile flew 14,000 km in 15 hours of continuous flight – effectively circumnavigating half the globe.
The Burevestnik itself is not new. Recall that Putin announced its development back in 2018, when he outlined new types of weapons in an address to the Federal Assembly. In 2019, in an event that many experts have interpreted as a Burevestnik test near Severodvinsk (Arkhangelsk Region), an explosion and a surge of radiation occurred, with several people killed.
Kremlin propagandist Pavel Zarubin suggested that the most recent Burevestnik test is the “hard-hitting response” Putin had promised to potential Tomahawk missile strikes deep inside of Russia.
Alexei Venediktov, former head of the independent radio station Ekho Moskvy, who is known for his insight into the Kremlin’s actions, believes the testing of weapons like the Burevestnik should, from the Kremlin’s perspective, help to bring about an end to the war in Ukraine and incline the US toward accepting Russia’s peace terms. “This clearly is more escalation – even rumors of it [are escalatory]. People are starting to get scared, starting to look for means of defense [against the missile] or counterattack. There is nothing good about this from a political perspective,” says Venediktov.
“The stakes are getting higher,” says Fyodor Lukyanov. Lukyanov is an expert with a generally neutral, analytical style and is trusted by the Russian authorities. He regularly moderates sessions of the Valdai Discussion Club featuring Putin. He is also part of the leadership at government-affiliated institutions like the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and the Russian International Affairs Council. “The White House wants a swift end to hostilities, wherever they are taking place [in the world]. The Kremlin insists on addressing the root causes of the conflict [in Ukraine], which requires a multifaceted package agreement. And its structure must be agreed upon before a ceasefire. The conclusion is not the most encouraging. The US negotiating objectives are impractical. Russia’s are far from being realized,” Lukyanov writes, noting that the chances of a ceasefire appear slim.
Moscow also responded to the cancellation of the Budapest meeting with a demonstrative display of its military might. Several days after, Russia conducted large-scale nuclear exercises. On October 22, Putin remotely oversaw the strategic exercises, which included launches of a Yars ICBM from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome and a Sineva missile from a submarine in the Barents Sea.
On October 26, speaking to the high command, Putin announced the successful test of the latest nuclear-powered 9M730 Burevestnik cruise missile. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported that the missile flew 14,000 km in 15 hours of continuous flight – effectively circumnavigating half the globe.
The Burevestnik itself is not new. Recall that Putin announced its development back in 2018, when he outlined new types of weapons in an address to the Federal Assembly. In 2019, in an event that many experts have interpreted as a Burevestnik test near Severodvinsk (Arkhangelsk Region), an explosion and a surge of radiation occurred, with several people killed.
Kremlin propagandist Pavel Zarubin suggested that the most recent Burevestnik test is the “hard-hitting response” Putin had promised to potential Tomahawk missile strikes deep inside of Russia.
Alexei Venediktov, former head of the independent radio station Ekho Moskvy, who is known for his insight into the Kremlin’s actions, believes the testing of weapons like the Burevestnik should, from the Kremlin’s perspective, help to bring about an end to the war in Ukraine and incline the US toward accepting Russia’s peace terms. “This clearly is more escalation – even rumors of it [are escalatory]. People are starting to get scared, starting to look for means of defense [against the missile] or counterattack. There is nothing good about this from a political perspective,” says Venediktov.
“The stakes are getting higher,” says Fyodor Lukyanov. Lukyanov is an expert with a generally neutral, analytical style and is trusted by the Russian authorities. He regularly moderates sessions of the Valdai Discussion Club featuring Putin. He is also part of the leadership at government-affiliated institutions like the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and the Russian International Affairs Council. “The White House wants a swift end to hostilities, wherever they are taking place [in the world]. The Kremlin insists on addressing the root causes of the conflict [in Ukraine], which requires a multifaceted package agreement. And its structure must be agreed upon before a ceasefire. The conclusion is not the most encouraging. The US negotiating objectives are impractical. Russia’s are far from being realized,” Lukyanov writes, noting that the chances of a ceasefire appear slim.
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