Politics
The Alaska Summit Yields No Breakthrough, But None Was in the Cards
August 20, 2025
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Sergei Shelin
Journalist, independent analyst and author of Russia after Putin and Trump
(Freedom Letters, 2025)
Journalist Sergei Shelin argues that at their meeting in Alaska, both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump achieved their minimum objectives. The dialogue never could have ended the war – and it did not.
The original text in Russian was published in the Moscow Times and is being republished here with the author’s permission.
President Donald J. Trump welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Anchorage, Alaska, August 15, 2025.
Source: Wiki Commons
Source: Wiki Commons
The Alaska summit is wrongly being called a failure. Both Putin and Trump achieved their minimum objectives.
Trump could not have “handed over” Ukraine even if he had wanted to. To hand over something, you need leverage – in Trump’s language, “cards.” But Trump had no good cards to play.
No cards
Ukraine no longer receives free aid from the US. Threats of sweeping secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil were dismissed from the start as a bluff – and indeed they were. But Trump is clearly unwilling to start a new trade war with China. In this context, simply meeting Putin face-to-face became the perfect way to naturally signal that his recent big threats were no longer in effect.
At the three-hour “three-on-three” negotiations, Trump could only sell what he had to sell. Being a businessman, he knows just one way of working with foreign politicians: commercial blackmail coupled with commercial bribery.
Trump could not have “handed over” Ukraine even if he had wanted to. To hand over something, you need leverage – in Trump’s language, “cards.” But Trump had no good cards to play.
No cards
Ukraine no longer receives free aid from the US. Threats of sweeping secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil were dismissed from the start as a bluff – and indeed they were. But Trump is clearly unwilling to start a new trade war with China. In this context, simply meeting Putin face-to-face became the perfect way to naturally signal that his recent big threats were no longer in effect.
At the three-hour “three-on-three” negotiations, Trump could only sell what he had to sell. Being a businessman, he knows just one way of working with foreign politicians: commercial blackmail coupled with commercial bribery.
“Trump had nothing to blackmail Putin with, while the money and benefits he offered were not enough to prompt any softening of Putin’s terms for stopping the war.”
The discussion never even reached the point of serious bargaining.
Putin, just in case, brought his main financiers to Alaska: Anton Siluanov and Kirill Dmitriev, the former being the official Finance Ministry chief and the latter his trusted private money handler. But Putin never brought them into the talks.
It feels somewhat like Trump’s experience with Kim Jong-un. In his first term, Trump though that Kim would sell off his nuclear arsenal for the right price. The idea that an absolute monarch would give up what guaranteed his power and life in exchange for money was absurd, yet Trump traveled to bow to Kim three times. Something of that stayed in his memory and this time, going to see Putin, he refrained from promising triumph in advance and thus looked less ridiculous in the end.
Trump not the main character
Experience does matter. Seven years ago, the Helsinki summit was spoiled for Trump by a long joint press conference where Putin toyed with him, helped him answer questions, handed him a football and looked very much in charge. In Anchorage, the so-called “joint press conference” was reduced to a brief appearance with short statements.
Those fond of deciphering gestures may point to Putin’s visual dominance at every stage, but it was not as overwhelming this time.
For Trump personally, the summit was useful. He managed to extract himself from tricky situations he had created in recent months, shed the burden of carrying out threats that scared even him, and presented himself, if not as a peacemaker, then at least as a peace-lover.
Putin, just in case, brought his main financiers to Alaska: Anton Siluanov and Kirill Dmitriev, the former being the official Finance Ministry chief and the latter his trusted private money handler. But Putin never brought them into the talks.
It feels somewhat like Trump’s experience with Kim Jong-un. In his first term, Trump though that Kim would sell off his nuclear arsenal for the right price. The idea that an absolute monarch would give up what guaranteed his power and life in exchange for money was absurd, yet Trump traveled to bow to Kim three times. Something of that stayed in his memory and this time, going to see Putin, he refrained from promising triumph in advance and thus looked less ridiculous in the end.
Trump not the main character
Experience does matter. Seven years ago, the Helsinki summit was spoiled for Trump by a long joint press conference where Putin toyed with him, helped him answer questions, handed him a football and looked very much in charge. In Anchorage, the so-called “joint press conference” was reduced to a brief appearance with short statements.
Those fond of deciphering gestures may point to Putin’s visual dominance at every stage, but it was not as overwhelming this time.
For Trump personally, the summit was useful. He managed to extract himself from tricky situations he had created in recent months, shed the burden of carrying out threats that scared even him, and presented himself, if not as a peacemaker, then at least as a peace-lover.
“The central figure, of course, was not Trump but Putin. Whether the war continues or stops depends only on him.”
And it is now clear to almost everyone that the long-term dividing line will, with minor adjustments, coincide with the current front lines. Almost everyone.
The rumor that simple-minded special envoy Whitkoff, on his last trip to Moscow, initially imagined Putin was ready to hand back the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to Ukraine strikes me as plausible. But to the credit of the Trump administration, in the two weeks since then they realized that nothing of the sort should be expected and, to some extent, that war is about more than territory.
Insatiable appetites
When people ask whether Putin is ready to make peace, they usually mean whether he is prepared to abandon the ultimatum he announced on the first day of the war: the removal of Ukraine’s leadership, regime change and the conversion of a truncated Ukraine into a Russian vassal.
There are two popular answers. The first: Putin is not ready to make peace and intends to fight on, perhaps even to the capitulation of Ukraine and the West. The second: the 2022 ultimatum is obsolete and Putin seeks an exit, provided the West allows him to portray peace as victory, return to the club of great powers and negotiate on generous terms.
The Alaska meeting gave Putin every chance to take the second path. He showed no interest. Judging by all signs, including his own statement at the press appearance, Putin in Alaska demanded exactly what he had always demanded: the capitulation not only of Ukraine, but also of Europe.
As a gesture of good faith, he agreed to work toward this capitulation by way of still-vague negotiations and possibly even a personal meeting with Zelensky. He even consented to involve Trump, whom he had come to regard as an accessory in recent months.
Yet Trump’s own words – “now it’s really up to President Zelensky to get it done” – suggest that Putin’s appetites proved excessive even for him. Trump now appears intent on persuading Zelensky, who rushed to meet him at the White House, to take all the concessions upon himself.
The rumor that simple-minded special envoy Whitkoff, on his last trip to Moscow, initially imagined Putin was ready to hand back the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to Ukraine strikes me as plausible. But to the credit of the Trump administration, in the two weeks since then they realized that nothing of the sort should be expected and, to some extent, that war is about more than territory.
Insatiable appetites
When people ask whether Putin is ready to make peace, they usually mean whether he is prepared to abandon the ultimatum he announced on the first day of the war: the removal of Ukraine’s leadership, regime change and the conversion of a truncated Ukraine into a Russian vassal.
There are two popular answers. The first: Putin is not ready to make peace and intends to fight on, perhaps even to the capitulation of Ukraine and the West. The second: the 2022 ultimatum is obsolete and Putin seeks an exit, provided the West allows him to portray peace as victory, return to the club of great powers and negotiate on generous terms.
The Alaska meeting gave Putin every chance to take the second path. He showed no interest. Judging by all signs, including his own statement at the press appearance, Putin in Alaska demanded exactly what he had always demanded: the capitulation not only of Ukraine, but also of Europe.
As a gesture of good faith, he agreed to work toward this capitulation by way of still-vague negotiations and possibly even a personal meeting with Zelensky. He even consented to involve Trump, whom he had come to regard as an accessory in recent months.
Yet Trump’s own words – “now it’s really up to President Zelensky to get it done” – suggest that Putin’s appetites proved excessive even for him. Trump now appears intent on persuading Zelensky, who rushed to meet him at the White House, to take all the concessions upon himself.
“Anchorage proved to be neither Munich nor Yalta – and it could never have been. Trump does not have the power over Ukraine that Chamberlain had over Czechoslovakia.”
Moreover, unlike Roosevelt at that time, the current US president is too timid to even threaten sending US ground troops to war.
The summit unfolded according to the “baseline scenario.” It suited the participants. Trump can be glad that, contrary to his enemies’ expectations, he did not lose that much face. Putin got the chance to pretend to feel like the arbiter of humanity’s fate.
As for the war itself, nothing has changed. Its outcome depends not on the US, which has stepped back, but on Ukraine, which is fighting, and Europe, which continues to support Kyiv. The outcome is up to Ukraine and Europe.
The summit unfolded according to the “baseline scenario.” It suited the participants. Trump can be glad that, contrary to his enemies’ expectations, he did not lose that much face. Putin got the chance to pretend to feel like the arbiter of humanity’s fate.
As for the war itself, nothing has changed. Its outcome depends not on the US, which has stepped back, but on Ukraine, which is fighting, and Europe, which continues to support Kyiv. The outcome is up to Ukraine and Europe.
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