LNG prices have surged recently because of the US/Israel-Iran war, along with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In March, the average front-month TTF price rose from EUR35 per MWh in January-February (roughly equivalent to $420 per 1,000 cubic meters of piped gas) to EUR52.87 per MWh ($630 per 1,000 cubic meters). In April, it remained at an elevated EUR45.21 per MWh ($540 per 1,000 cubic meters).
In April alone, the Belgian port of Zeebrugge received eight cargoes totaling 587,482 tons (equivalent to 835 million cubic meters) of Yamal LNG, accounting for 36.3% of all European Yamal LNG imports that month. As of April 30, Zeebrugge had received 25 Yamal cargoes totaling 1.84 million tons (2.6 billion cubic meters) since the start of the year, or 26.9% of all Yamal LNG imports to Europe. In other words, tankers carrying Russian LNG from Yamal were arriving in Zeebrugge roughly every five days.
Overall, Europe has never imported Yamal LNG at such a pace as it did in the first four months of the year. Put simply, the EU is keeping Russia’s Arctic LNG business afloat. While the long-term LNG contracts remain in place, Europe will continue financing a Russian gas project that has no profitable future without the EU.
Russia is under enormous economic pressure, and Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy industry are exposing real vulnerabilities in the Kremlin’s war economy. At this critical moment, the EU still holds in its hands one of Moscow’s key sources of revenue.